Long-dated US Treasuries face pressure because the market will buy US debt only at 5%-plus yields, with no short-term fix in sight. The 10-year yield keeps climbing parabolically as Washington issues enormous debt to fund deficits, investors demand more compensation for inflation and duration risk, the Fed is now raising rates, and Treasuries must compete harder for global capital. The government seems reluctant to act, while rising oil prices add to inflation pressure. x.com 

Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries benefit from falling long-end yields as the Fed's inflation response becomes a policy error. The Fed looks likely to hike again to defend its credibility despite a supply shock; 5% rates are unsustainable, and current price action points to financial damage followed by a hard pivot. A one-year rate freeze could instead let long yields rise by giving the economy a breather and making later hikes more likely. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated US Treasury yields face structural upward pressure until deficits fall, and neither party shows the will to cut them. US deficits of 6% are the highest ever outside a major war, and debt above $40 trillion against $33 trillion of GDP could be the breaking point. Japan's 10-year yield near 3%, the highest since 1996, gives it reason to sell some of its $1 trillion of Treasuries, and the UK, holding $0.9 trillion, has 10-year yields at 5.1%. Fed action may only briefly slow the rise. … Show more

Long-dated government bond yields are surging worldwide at once, a sign something is wrong. UK 30-year yields hit 5.88%, the highest since 1998, the US 30-year topped 5%, Japan's 10-year reached 2.95%, and German and French long yields hit 2011 and 2008 highs. The roots are dangerous government debt levels, European and UK central bank balance-sheet shrinkage, and tech giants issuing 20-40-year bonds that draw pension and insurer demand away from government debt. x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries are the safe-haven trade again as money rotates into yield. With the 30-year paying over 5%, holding non-yielding assets is harder to justify; after the Fed held, yields fell across the curve and TLT rose 1%. x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries stay pinned because the long end now prices deficits and issuance rather than the policy rate. Even when the Fed cuts the front end, term premium and supply keep the long bond down, which is why cuts have not helped. Per Charlie Bilello, the US bond market has been in drawdown for 71 months, by far the longest on record; bonds losing to inflation six years running is the debasement trade, and why hard assets keep getting bid. x.com  x.com 

Long-term Treasury yields keep climbing because investors increasingly doubt America enough to lend to it for 30 years, and nobody can force them to lend cheap. US debt is $40 trillion, interest costs over $1 trillion a year, more than the military, and the deficit is 6% of GDP during a boom. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's $4 billion buybacks are fake demand that fixes none of the overspending, a point Stanley Druckenmiller made in his op-ed "Let the Bond Market Speak." x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Falling Treasury yields reinforce the growth-scare thesis and mark a bullish turn for long-dated Treasuries. The 10-year yield is breaking below 5% as TLT rallies. x.com 

Investors are demanding much higher yields to hold long-term Treasuries because of persistent inflation, ballooning government debt and uncertainty around the Fed. That has pushed long-term Treasury prices to 22-year lows, and US debt has just crossed $40 trillion for the first time. x.com