Long-dated US Treasuries face pressure because the market will buy US debt only at 5%-plus yields, with no short-term fix in sight. The 10-year yield keeps climbing parabolically as Washington issues enormous debt to fund deficits, investors demand more compensation for inflation and duration risk, the Fed is now raising rates, and Treasuries must compete harder for global capital. The government seems reluctant to act, while rising oil prices add to inflation pressure. x.com 

Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries are the safe-haven trade again as money rotates into yield. With the 30-year paying over 5%, holding non-yielding assets is harder to justify; after the Fed held, yields fell across the curve and TLT rose 1%. x.com 

Investors are demanding much higher yields to hold long-term Treasuries because of persistent inflation, ballooning government debt and uncertainty around the Fed. That has pushed long-term Treasury prices to 22-year lows, and US debt has just crossed $40 trillion for the first time. x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries remain under pressure from historic AI borrowing and hot price gauges, even as the long end eases from 2002 highs. The AI sector has raised about $500 billion of debt in nine months, a quarter of all corporate issuance, and Goldman Sachs sees $1.2 trillion in 2027. Monday's ISM services prices-paid gauge hit its highest in over four years, and a December Fed hike is still largely priced. The 10-year back above 5.35% would end the relief; Brent under $97 would extend it. … Show more

Long-dated US Treasuries benefit from falling long-end yields as the Fed's inflation response becomes a policy error. The Fed looks likely to hike again to defend its credibility despite a supply shock; 5% rates are unsustainable, and current price action points to financial damage followed by a hard pivot. A one-year rate freeze could instead let long yields rise by giving the economy a breather and making later hikes more likely. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasury yields are anchored by fiscal policy, not the Fed, so without a credible budget plan bond buyers keep pushing them higher. Moving holdings to the short end turns Treasuries into quasi-money T-bills, which adds to inflation and lifts the whole curve. Ray Dalio says Japan selling US bonds, long-end yields at new highs with a weaker dollar, and Scott Bessent's limited buyback plan fit his template for how countries go broke. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-term Treasury yields keep climbing because investors increasingly doubt America enough to lend to it for 30 years, and nobody can force them to lend cheap. US debt is $40 trillion, interest costs over $1 trillion a year, more than the military, and the deficit is 6% of GDP during a boom. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's $4 billion buybacks are fake demand that fixes none of the overspending, a point Stanley Druckenmiller made in his op-ed "Let the Bond Market Speak." x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Long-dated Treasuries look oversold because Treasury Secretary Bessent is likely to intervene soon. Long-end yields reflect term premium from a fiscal problem, not inflation fear, and only the issuer can fix it by shifting supply to bills, sizing up long-dated buybacks and signaling it. Treasury already doubled long-dated buybacks in August. With a trillion-dollar interest bill, policymakers have a pain threshold; the 1942-1951 yield cap is the precedent. @UrbanKaoboy sees a capitulation bottom. … Show more

Long-dated Treasury yields face more upward pressure than in the 1990s, a common comparison. Then, yields were high but falling from the early-1980s Volcker peak, and the US was the sole superpower. Now yields are turning up from their 2020 low, while the Iran war has driven oil-led inflation and exposed weaker US military dominance, denting confidence in Treasuries. Foreigners bought over $940 billion of US stocks in a year while selling Treasuries. Pressure persists until macro tensions ease. … Show more