SanDisk's gross-margin plateau is bad for the stock, because memory stocks trade on pricing and gross-margin trajectory. @jukan05 calls the plateau a welcome sign of disciplined, long-term management and argues investors should now watch volume rather than price, noting bears see it as the cycle peak; that view is wrong for the shares. x.com 

SanDisk has a long way to fall because it is a budget SSD maker trading at a P/E of 36. The leveraged SanDisk fund is already down 89%. x.com 

The need for more memory evident in every company's earnings report makes the market's negative view of Sandisk hard to understand. Yet splitting a stock above $1,000 is one of the dumbest moves a company can make: it hands market makers the ability to manipulate the shares through options, a risk for Sandisk. x.com  x.com 

Sandisk's growth is coming entirely from higher prices, not more bits shipped, which makes it hard to sustain. Revenue grew 97% quarter over quarter as almost every hyperscaler raised capex to cover rising prices. Its roughly 80% gross margin is excessive and customers resent it; as long as demand far exceeds supply it can keep both, but supply eventually catches up and margins will erode. The open questions are how long new fabs take and whether Sandisk or rivals add the supply. x.com  x.com  … Show more

SanDisk has likely topped for this cycle, and memory stocks such as Micron are rolling over even though fundamentals still look incredible. In cycles, price weakens first, estimates and targets fall later, and the narrative flips only after the damage is done, with vicious failed rallies along the way. SanDisk already guided lower, its gross margin has plateaued and price action has been terrible, so it likely goes lower. Sell on technicals rather than waiting for fundamentals to erode. x.com  … Show more

SanDisk's gross-margin plateau signals long-term discipline, not the cycle peak bears fear. Not squeezing customers, plus balanced capex under its NBM long-term agreement model, avoids overinvesting at the top. Investors should watch volume, not price: while big tech keeps spending and compute stays scarce, memory shortages cannot ease alone, so rising volume and the LTA price floor should grow the profit pool enormously. With buybacks, memory should rerate as essential AI infrastructure. x.com 

Sandisk's datacenter shipments and restrained bit-supply plan strengthen its growth case, without settling contract protection in a downturn. Management attributed roughly 60% of fiscal Q1 revenue growth to volume and 40% to price; datacenter sales rose 61% sequentially to $4.8B, supplying 88% of total growth. It retains mid-to-high-teens bit growth rather than accelerating supply. Consumer sales fell 29%, and the CFO cautioned against carrying Q2's growth rate into fiscal Q3. x.com  x.com 

Sandisk is a tulip bubble on steroids, and such extremes end in losses of 97% or more. Its monthly RSI reached 99.5, and at the roughly $2,350 peak the price stood about 90% above its monthly 50-period moving average. The unwind is in line with the uninverting of the 10-year/3-month yield curve, and @StockSavvyShay notes Sandisk is in its biggest drawdown of the past year. x.com 

SanDisk's buyback capacity could keep the stock bid for a while because its future sales are already priced in under contract. Per @nodiligence, SanDisk put $25 into its own stock for every $1 in factories this year, starting buybacks the same year it booked $59.8bn of flash reservations, and has $11.4bn of orders to fill over 12 months. The same return on buybacks versus plant investment is why Kioxia is Japan's most valuable listed company. x.com  x.com 

SanDisk has run up about 3,000% since its 2025 IPO, turning a $10,000 investment into nearly $300,000 in a year. x.com