Sandisk's datacenter shipments and restrained bit-supply plan strengthen its growth case, without settling contract protection in a downturn. Management attributed roughly 60% of fiscal Q1 revenue growth to volume and 40% to price; datacenter sales rose 61% sequentially to $4.8B, supplying 88% of total growth. It retains mid-to-high-teens bit growth rather than accelerating supply. Consumer sales fell 29%, and the CFO cautioned against carrying Q2's growth rate into fiscal Q3. x.com  x.com 

Sandisk looks risky at these levels because China's YMTC is stabilizing cutting-edge NAND yields and ramping production, a predictable threat not yet priced into the stock. Per @jukan05, YMTC plans to mass-produce its most advanced NAND at Wuhan Fab 3 from H2 2026, is winning major overseas customers, and is projected to surpass SK Hynix and Micron in NAND output by year-end. x.com  x.com 

Sandisk's earnings growth makes its valuation look unusually low, with guidance showing no slowdown. Revenue rose 378% year over year, and $52.5 GAAP EPS implies a 6.1 annualized P/E, below Micron's. Sandisk's roughly 85% gross margin also compares favorably with SK hynix's apparently sub-50% NAND margin. Next-quarter guidance calls for $12.2 billion-$12.6 billion of revenue and $55-$57 non-GAAP EPS. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Sandisk's fundamentals haven't reversed, but the trade is shifting from price and margin expansion to how long ~80% gross margins can last. ASPs still rise but more slowly, and 83-85% margin guidance after 84.6% suggests a plateau. Long-term deals with 8 customers cover over half of FY2027 bits and about two-thirds of FY2028 at around 80% margins, trading upside for certainty. Consumer revenue fell 32% sequentially as high prices hit phones and PCs. The Aug 13 investor day is the next test. … Show more

Sandisk, Western Digital and Seagate are priced as if AI's borrowed demand is permanent. Server spending is growing 36.9% in 2026 and data center systems 31.7%, versus 10.8% for total IT, a gap funded by raided budgets, panic orders and record debt; data center debt issuance nearly doubled last year to $182 billion. Since April, P/S rose from 10.5x to 25.5x at Sandisk, 8.6x to 18.7x at Western Digital and 8.5x to 19.7x at Seagate. Stocks bought above 10x sales have historically lost money. x.com 

Sandisk's fast-growing data-center revenue strengthens its case among memory names with upside. Data-center revenue rose 61% quarter over quarter; revenue of $11.03B, adjusted EPS of $49.51 and adjusted gross margin of 85.1% all exceeded estimates. For upside among Micron, Sandisk and Kioxia, Micron ranks first, then Sandisk, then Kioxia, until further guidance. x.com  x.com 

SanDisk has run up about 3,000% since its 2025 IPO, turning a $10,000 investment into nearly $300,000 in a year. x.com 

SanDisk's 2030 guidance has zero credibility, like Salesforce's or ServiceNow's long-range targets, and looks like its Oracle-RPO moment. A potential compute overbuild could arrive well before then, along with massive new memory capacity from everyone, including China. The guidance is still good for a big one-day gain. x.com  x.com 

Sandisk still looks cheap despite a frothy market, because it actually makes money and data-center growth is strong. It should be able to keep that run going until high-bandwidth flash arrives around 2030, though the trade carries risk and may not work out. x.com  x.com 

Micron and Sandisk's current demand strength is already priced in. The market already knows today's demand is strong, after Micron said it "can't meet even half" of data center memory demand, per @PolymarketMoney. What matters is memory demand in 2028-2030 and beyond. x.com