Marcos Milla
Former Analyst at the Federal Reserve, ETF/Stock Newsletter Author
Semiconductors look attractive over a two-to-three-year horizon because the short-term pullback has already happened. Nvidia's impact should reverse the trend. x.comÂ
Nvidia's rising revenue alongside a much lower P/E is getting hard to ignore. Its chart shows quarterly revenue above $80 billion in Q2 2026 while the P/E is around 30x, down from much higher multiples in prior years. x.comÂ
Long bitcoin against short semiconductors is the top AI agent trade for the next year, because AI agents will become consumers and need new financial guardrails. That comes even from a compute bull, amid the volatility of the AI mid-cycle slowdown. x.comÂ
Nvidia looks interesting again because rising earnings estimates have not been reflected in its valuation. FY28 EPS estimates rose about 25% in 60 days while shares stayed roughly flat; it trades below 14 times FY28 earnings with a mid-single-digit free-cash-flow yield. Exponential change is hard to grasp, and it is hard to see Nvidia not winning if the US does, though there is little capital to absorb market wobbles. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's beat has relit the AI trade and given semiconductors a fresh catalyst. Chips led Wednesday's close, with AMD, Nvidia, Micron, Marvell and Broadcom all up, but SMH is still below its 21-day average near 594. It needs to hold 536 and reclaim 562 before buyers regain control; 594 is the next test. x.com x.comÂ
Nvidia delivered everything investors wanted, yet trades at only 13x its 2029 EPS power of $22 after underperforming the semiconductor sector by 50% this year. It derisked gross margins, guided to 70% total revenue growth in 2028 versus 45% expected and gave more transparency on third-party financing. Supply should stay short of demand through 2028. x.comÂ
Improving earnings and more attractive valuations favor AI infrastructure names Nvidia, Micron, Broadcom and TSMC. Goldman Sachs charts put memory stocks at about 4 times two-year forward earnings versus an 8 times median, and large fabless chip stocks at about 13 times versus 18 times. x.comÂ
Nvidia's higher token output per watt could win it share as access to power becomes a bigger constraint, according to Nvidia. The market expects further share losses to ASICs, helping explain its 15x calendar-2027 P/E; a small sentiment shift could expand the multiple. Nvidia remains especially attractive paired with shorts in semiconductors and should outperform the sector through its November 19 earnings. x.comÂ
Nvidia's earnings growth has outpaced its share-price gains, challenging the bubble claim. The attached comparison indexes both to 2020 and shows roughly 70x GAAP earnings versus 36x share price through 2026. x.comÂ
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF is likely to keep recovering because it holds larger semiconductor and semi-equipment names that are staging a comeback. Memory-concentrated funds still have a lot of work to do. x.comÂ