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Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management
Oracle is worth buying because the bear narratives contradict each other. If OpenAI is cooked, Oracle can redirect capacity to data-center demand that is otherwise called insatiable; if demand is not insatiable, then CoreWeave, Nebius and the whole AI theme are a bubble too. Unlike neoclouds, Oracle has non-AI cash flow to fall back on if the buildout busts. OpenAI also stays viable as long as mainstream users stick with ChatGPT, even if Claude is the better product. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Oracle could work as a trade above its recent swing low, backed by its heavy ties to OpenAI, a new deal with Tencent and insider buying. The chart shows a potential failed breakdown of a key zone; below the swing low, the idea should be revisited. x.comÂ
Oracle looks buyable for now because the large financing and equity raises feared for next year no longer look imminent. New Mexico commissioners say there were no talks to alter Project Jupiter's power agreement and doubt a majority will approve a change; Stargate may be over a year behind. PIMCO has left AI data-center bonds, which still threatens funding. This is probably a bottom until the AI bubble pops; wait until $200 to short. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Oracle's big rally on its RPO jump was fake, and the only data since show OpenAI writing checks its business can't cash. The pop came on an earnings miss and took 57 days to undo; the stock then fell another 46% and has dropped after every report since. Within two weeks, a force majeure dismissed as a nothing burger gave way to word that its cash-incinerating key customer has $20B less revenue than due diligence assumed. Shorting in size is still hard. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Oracle's AI buildout looks fundable as spending peaks and cash flow turns positive. Spending is forecast to peak in FY27-28, with free cash flow positive in 2H FY28 and above $30bn in FY29, a roughly $54bn swing. New capital raising is capped at $20bn through 2030, half equity and half debt. Revenue is projected to grow from $90bn next year to $225bn+ by FY30. Bullish Oracle. x.comÂ
Oracle's forecast of a FY29 capex step-down and a limit on additional capital raises supports a return to all-time highs soon. Oracle says it will limit those raises to $20 billion through FY30 and reaffirmed its FY27 outlook of over $90 billion in revenue and $8.10 non-GAAP EPS. The stock remains very overcrowded. x.com x.comÂ
Oracle's OpenAI exposure makes buying its shares here a bet too big to take. x.com x.comÂ
Oracle will likely either tank or skyrocket with OpenAI's IPO, and skyrocketing looks more likely. Oracle should be one of the most important companies for enterprise AI adoption, which is OpenAI's real focus rather than $20-a-month subscriptions. It also offers compute exposure. x.comÂ
Oracle could eventually trade like Micron and SanDisk do today once the market fully appreciates its role in AI infrastructure, a contrarian setup with more upside left than CoreWeave or Nebius. Timing is unclear, and the shift depends largely on OpenAI sentiment: skepticism is still priced in, but if it becomes clear OpenAI is not going anywhere, the narrative could change quickly. David Sacks and Chamath Palihapitiya were surprisingly bullish on Oracle in a recent podcast. x.comÂ
Oracle looks set to burn many more billions in cash at least into the first half of fiscal 2028. That is the less reassuring implication of Reuters' headline that Oracle expects cash flow to turn positive in the second half of that fiscal year, even though the market liked the news. x.comÂ
Oracle should drift higher after a big earnings beat, coming right after GPT-6 Astra's release. It might be a viable neocloud: channel checks were terrible, but that likely reflects Larry Ellison extending credit too far with suppliers. x.comÂ