Sony is the better pick over Disney for its music catalog and Japan's workaholic culture, in contrast to Disney's lazy C-suite. x.comÂ
Say No To Trading
Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management
Disney is a far better buy than MGM Resorts: Disney is a very inexpensive stock with irreplaceable assets, and Toy Story 5 is set to crush it for the company. x.comÂ
Sony is interesting precisely because it is still trapped in a conglomerate discount while it simplifies its structure. @RogueWayve notes imaging and sensing is only 25% of profit and that a spinout would unlock real value; a spinout would probably unlock value faster, but the key question is whether the imaging and sensing business gets reclassified by the market before a clean spinout arrives. x.comÂ
Sony is fighting semiconductor shortages, tariffs and rising prices, and is preparing its first US bond offering in about 30 years. Its profit fell 60% to $500 million last quarter before sales fell off a cliff this quarter. x.comÂ
Durable entertainment IP is a special niche, because it is rare to confidently predict a high-margin product's relevance 20 years out. The clearest examples are Nintendo with Mario, Comcast with Harry Potter, Netflix with NFL and college sports, Spotify, Amazon Prime and Disney's animated movies. Many can be owned, though some are purer plays and some cheaper than others. x.com x.comÂ
Sony looks headed back to its highs on the strength of Spider-Man and GTA VI. Per @Kalshi_Finance, Sony is up nearly 10% in the past month as Spider-Man: Brand New Day delivered the second-biggest opening weekend ever. x.comÂ
Nintendo sits on the most valuable IP catalogue in entertainment and still looks underpriced relative to Disney. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's $372.5 million global opening weekend, the biggest of the year so far, shows that huge box office for video game IP films is the new normal. x.comÂ
Disney is a dog with fleas. Absurdly high theme-park prices face demand elasticity as a weakening consumer in a K-shaped economy pulls back. Its movie lineup is dated, with live-action Moana joining Snow White as box-office bombs; its balance sheet carries heavy debt from poorly conceived acquisitions that could curb park spending; and AI threatens several businesses. There is a price for everything: below $90, reward versus risk turns favorable. x.com x.comÂ
Disney looks like a dead stock walking as it raises streaming prices again on a service with little to no new content and many more commercials. Subscribers seem unlikely to keep paying, which is probably why management stopped reporting subscriber numbers. x.comÂ
Nintendo and Sony sold off because memory prices rose, but consoles and video games are entire industries and identities, and gamers have the highest willingness to pay for tech of any consumers. They spend $3k on lag reduction and big screens and $1k on vibrating chairs. x.comÂ
Disney's stock will not reverse until it drops the Pride flags, since every position carrying them has been crucified. x.comÂ