Varun Takkar
Stock & Options Trading, Technical Analysis, Trading Community
CoreWeave is set up for a large gap higher this month, with a move from the $80s toward $100 possible on rising volume. A double bottom at $80 established a floor, and the open gap at $92-94 is the first target. Recent executive share sales were made under pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plans set up months in advance, not out of fear about the stock. x.com x.com
CoreWeave's fundamental thesis keeps strengthening while the market fixates on insider selling and heavy debt. It has a contracted AI backlog above $104 billion, is expanding capacity from 70MW to 1.5GW, recently signed Hudson River Trading, IMC and Rescale, secured priority SSD supply from Solidigm and launched in Indonesia. After falling from $132.15 to a $60.55 flush, the stock is basing at $80-85 just below its moving averages, setting up a push to $90+. x.com x.com x.com
CoreWeave's building buyer pressure despite deteriorating sentiment points to an upside reversal. Every time this divergence has appeared in the stock, it has reversed to the upside. x.com
CoreWeave looks set to test its all-time highs as it bounces off the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, with large positive gamma and vanna exposure concentrated at the $110 strike for 18 September. x.com
CoreWeave looks like a poor long because its debt now exceeds its market capitalization. x.com
CoreWeave looks positioned to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of years of demand for GPU computing at scale. It should be one of the most important players in the AI infrastructure buildout, with Jensen Huang and Nvidia deeply tied to it. At $50 a share, its debt load is not a concern; the stock could look like one of the best buying opportunities by decade-end. x.com x.com
CoreWeave could jump about 15% toward $120 within the next 10 trading days, with $2 million piling into the stock before the close. x.com
CoreWeave's debt-funded GPUs make financing costs central to its business, while credit markets now price severe distress. Its five-year CDS reached 1,194 basis points on October 15 and remained near 1,145 last week, implying roughly 60% default odds over five years. If yields fall after the FOMC yet shares cannot hold $50, the balance sheet deserves more scrutiny than the macro backdrop. x.com
CoreWeave's falling credit-risk spread and record-volume lower low point to possible capitulation after severe news. Its five-year CDS has fallen nearly 500 basis points from a 1,500-basis-point high; over the past two weeks it faced the worst news short of bankruptcy, including a CDS scare and Elon Musk spreading fear about neoclouds. This could be the bottom if the stock reclaims its July 29 level. x.com
Sellers of millions of dollars in December 2028 $200 puts on CoreWeave are signaling the stock will be sent higher soon. x.com
CoreWeave's repeated insider selling is a warning sign for the stock. A Bloomberg insider-transactions chart shows sale markers from August 2025 through October 2026. x.com
CoreWeave's pricing power is overlooked amid financing fears, making it potentially the most misunderstood AI stock right now. It had over $104B in Q2 backlog and signed $25B in net new commitments over six weeks. Short-term contracts approach $40M per MW annually versus about $7M on active capacity, but that rate cannot be applied fleetwide. A $4.2B convertible carried a 2.875% coupon despite near-15% unsecured bond yields; $35B debt, dilution and capacity-conversion risks remain. x.com
