Sellers of millions of dollars in December 2028 $200 puts on CoreWeave are signaling the stock will be sent higher soon. x.com
Theresa Perrin
Self-Directed Investor & Trader, Former Hospice Nurse
CoreWeave's building buyer pressure despite deteriorating sentiment points to an upside reversal. Every time this divergence has appeared in the stock, it has reversed to the upside. x.com
CoreWeave looks set for a risk-on move after strong earnings drove its largest weekly buy volume since last summer's IPO run, right after the stock swept a full year of lows. The pullback since has been inefficient and low-volume, and CoreWeave is trading its third inside candle since IPO, an insanely compressed setup. x.com x.com
CoreWeave's five-year CDS spread adds to the weight of its credit risk. It has reached 1,200 basis points. x.com
CoreWeave's falling credit-risk spread and record-volume lower low point to possible capitulation after severe news. Its five-year CDS has fallen nearly 500 basis points from a 1,500-basis-point high; over the past two weeks it faced the worst news short of bankruptcy, including a CDS scare and Elon Musk spreading fear about neoclouds. This could be the bottom if the stock reclaims its July 29 level. x.com
CoreWeave is a buy now, with Wall Street analysts' 12-month price target of $144.46 implying about 73% upside. x.com
CoreWeave's repeated insider selling is a warning sign for the stock. A Bloomberg insider-transactions chart shows sale markers from August 2025 through October 2026. x.com
CoreWeave is set up for a large gap higher this month, with a move from the $80s toward $100 possible on rising volume. A double bottom at $80 established a floor, and the open gap at $92-94 is the first target. Recent executive share sales were made under pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plans set up months in advance, not out of fear about the stock. x.com x.com
CoreWeave likely returns to the 170-220 area over the next three to six months after breaking out of a descending wedge, a pattern that often ends a corrective phase. A combined signal system has flipped long, with price above its fair value band. Price is compressing between support and resistance, storing energy, while unusual options flow shows big money positioning for a multi-month rise. Base case is about 170, stretch 200-220, as long as support, trend and flow stay aligned. x.com x.com … Show more
CoreWeave's growing debt load will keep building until it pops, making puts on the stock too attractive to ignore. x.com x.com
CoreWeave's record-high credit-default swaps flag risk to the buying case. Liquid Trading says its bonds are distressed and the swaps price in a greater than 50% chance of default within five years. Even so, CoreWeave is a "crazy discount" that needs to recover from recent negative narratives before it takes off. x.com x.com x.com