AllllSevens
Stock-Market Research, Institutional Trading & Market Inefficiencies
CoreWeave looks set for a risk-on move after strong earnings drove its largest weekly buy volume since last summer's IPO run, right after the stock swept a full year of lows. The pullback since has been inefficient and low-volume, and CoreWeave is trading its third inside candle since IPO, an insanely compressed setup. x.com x.comÂ
CoreWeave looks extremely attractive as it potentially confirms a six-month sweep of range lows, after a candle carrying its largest buy volume ever. It is inefficiently priced below $120 resistance. Large options buyers are betting the same way, putting $10M into December $110 calls and $8M into September 2027 $180 calls. x.com x.comÂ
CoreWeave's building buyer pressure despite deteriorating sentiment points to an upside reversal. Every time this divergence has appeared in the stock, it has reversed to the upside. x.comÂ
CoreWeave's 3.2x 2027 revenue multiple makes it one of the most attractive stocks in the market. x.comÂ
CoreWeave looks like a poor long because its debt now exceeds its market capitalization. x.comÂ
CoreWeave looks positioned to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of years of demand for GPU computing at scale. It should be one of the most important players in the AI infrastructure buildout, with Jensen Huang and Nvidia deeply tied to it. At $50 a share, its debt load is not a concern; the stock could look like one of the best buying opportunities by decade-end. x.com x.comÂ
Positive big-tech commentary about compute over the next two weeks could support CoreWeave. The stock could still fall further; buying on a further decline would depend on the investment thesis remaining intact. x.comÂ
CoreWeave still trades at 7.6 times book value despite the implosion, well above the 1-4 times book value it should command. x.comÂ
Compute demand is too high for CoreWeave's decline to keep going. Its continued weakness alongside a rising Nebius looks overdone, making this a possible bounce point rather than a certain turnaround. x.comÂ
CoreWeave's falling credit-risk spread and record-volume lower low point to possible capitulation after severe news. Its five-year CDS has fallen nearly 500 basis points from a 1,500-basis-point high; over the past two weeks it faced the worst news short of bankruptcy, including a CDS scare and Elon Musk spreading fear about neoclouds. This could be the bottom if the stock reclaims its July 29 level. x.comÂ
CoreWeave bonds are a no-brainer right now, more so than its equity, making the equity the less attractive instrument. x.comÂ
CoreWeave's team and those at the table have thought through a structure with enormous precision that is forgiving in many situations. Their money-making record makes betting against the team unattractive, despite earlier skepticism about valuation and the need to go public. A feed full of bears and a falling stock do not change that assessment. x.comÂ
