Oh Come On!
Investor, Venture Capital Background
AerCap's record Q3 earnings and higher guidance add profit evidence to its buyback case at less than 7.5 times earnings. Per AerCap, adjusted EPS was $6.56 and 2026 guidance rose to about $20.70 before fourth-quarter sale gains; 2026 repurchases reached about 10% of end-2025 shares. If shares fall below book again, it could buy back 30% in a year and may undo the 111 million shares issued for GECAS within six years, despite a tripling share price. x.com x.com
GE Aerospace earns most of its money servicing a huge installed engine base, and record air traffic keeps that base turning. Engines sell at up to 70% off, while shop visits bring up to 70% of lifetime revenue; services were about 70% of 2025's $42B revenue, with a $210B backlog. At 43x earnings versus a 37x five-year average it is not cheap, a premium backed by the end of the conglomerate discount, margins and visibility. A correction would come only with a normal general market pullback. x.com … Show more
Micron's path to buying back about half of its shares by 2029 is extremely bullish. Per UBS, cited by @techfund1, free cash flow of about $155B, $225B and $205B for 2027-2029 lays a path to repurchasing about 30% of the company over two years and potentially about half through 2029. UBS expects the market to reward Micron with a much higher P/E as gross margins likely hold above 65-70% through the cycle. Wall Street price targets should now reflect much higher P/Es. x.com x.com
FTAI Aviation is no bargain on current numbers, but its Power business should eventually succeed, which would make the stock fairly cheap. Its accounting is problematic: reported EBITDA should be cut by 15-18%, leaving the stock on the expensive side, and fewer engine shop visits could bring a guidance cut. The current environment is not representative and should improve, but it is not a no-brainer. @Ofekl12 argues instead that the stock is deeply undervalued even with Power valued at zero. … Show more
Nvidia's expanded buyback signals confidence: if no one else buys the stock, Nvidia will. The board added $150 billion of authorization, bringing the remaining total to $235 billion, which Nvidia expects to complete by the end of fiscal 2028, more than 4% of its shares within about a year. The scale of the program reassures the market. x.com
Cisco's all-time-high stock price overstates how expensive it is, because it ignores more than 20 years of massive buybacks. Even after today's surge, Cisco's market cap is still below its all-time high. x.com
