Cisco's all-time-high stock price overstates how expensive it is, because it ignores more than 20 years of massive buybacks. Even after today's surge, Cisco's market cap is still below its all-time high. x.comÂ
Zenolytics
Founder of Zenolytics, Portfolio Manager at T11 Capital
Cisco is drawing aggressive bullish options flow and institutional accumulation ahead of earnings. Someone sold $15 million of January 2028 puts that are $28 in the money, and institutions have accumulated around $117 since the last earnings report broke the stock out of a nearly three-decade base. x.comÂ
Cisco looks attractive as a winner in the AI revolution outside the hyperscalers. x.comÂ
Cisco's AI infrastructure business is becoming a massive growth engine, driving a Q4 double beat and raise. Ahead of the print, options flow showed a $9.6M bullish bet and sizable put selling, backing a long-held conviction long. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Cisco has begun a new run after a massive technical breakout from more than 25 years below its previous all-time high, though it likely won't move as fast as AI infrastructure, chip and memory names. Its active venture arm is expanding aggressively into AI and security, including the $28 billion Splunk acquisition, the $400 million purchase of AI security startup Astrix and $1 billion invested in startups such as Cohere, Mistral AI and Scale AI. x.comÂ
Cisco's networking supercycle is no longer a pitch but booked business. Cisco guided fiscal 2027 AI infrastructure revenue to $7.5bn, almost double fiscal 2026, and that revenue is already booked. x.comÂ
Nvidia is undervalued, not the poster child of an AI bubble. Cisco traded near 200x earnings at the dot-com peak, while Nvidia trades around 20x, about a tenth of that; even after Cisco's roughly 90% crash, its P/E was about where Nvidia's is today. Nvidia just delivered 106% year-over-year revenue growth and guided next year's growth above 70%, so the AI boom is not over. Unprofitable $100 billion-plus companies are better bubble candidates. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Cisco's business is on fire, with soaring purchase commitments pointing to strong demand ahead. Per Wells Fargo, fiscal Q4 purchase commitments reached $16.033B, up 59% quarter over quarter and 153% year over year, accelerating from 73%, 56% and 47% in prior quarters. Management said silicon supply is secured through 2026 with 2027 negotiations under way, and its direct management of silicon design gives it end-to-end control. x.com x.comÂ
Hewlett Packard Enterprise's 30% jump looks like dot-com bubble behavior, since the stock trades at about -250 times earnings. Even after a strong earnings report it remains a poor-quality company; Dell and Cisco earned their multiple expansion with great fundamentals and undervaluation. A post the author replies to argues HPE, which sells servers and networking, is a laggard rerating toward the leaders. x.com x.comÂ
NVIDIA could repeat Cisco's 2000 crash in 2026. Cisco was the face of the dot-com era and fell 86% from its peak even though everyone was right that the internet would change everything. NVIDIA is the face of the AI era, with the same narrative, euphoria and crowded trade, and its chart is following Cisco's path. Being right about the technology does not protect investors from being wrong about the price. x.comÂ
Nvidia is not Cisco in 2000, because its earnings support the valuation. Nvidia's forward P/E is roughly 24.57, while Cisco's forward P/E was above 196 in 2000. x.comÂ