Danny Marques
Bitcoin/AI Investor Relations at OG Advisory Group, Research at Finblueprint
Cisco has begun a new run after a massive technical breakout from more than 25 years below its previous all-time high, though it likely won't move as fast as AI infrastructure, chip and memory names. Its active venture arm is expanding aggressively into AI and security, including the $28 billion Splunk acquisition, the $400 million purchase of AI security startup Astrix and $1 billion invested in startups such as Cohere, Mistral AI and Scale AI. x.comÂ
Cisco looks attractive as a winner in the AI revolution outside the hyperscalers. x.comÂ
Cisco's business is on fire, with soaring purchase commitments pointing to strong demand ahead. Per Wells Fargo, fiscal Q4 purchase commitments reached $16.033B, up 59% quarter over quarter and 153% year over year, accelerating from 73%, 56% and 47% in prior quarters. Management said silicon supply is secured through 2026 with 2027 negotiations under way, and its direct management of silicon design gives it end-to-end control. x.com x.comÂ
Cisco's AI infrastructure business is becoming a massive growth engine, driving a Q4 double beat and raise. Ahead of the print, options flow showed a $9.6M bullish bet and sizable put selling, backing a long-held conviction long. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Cisco's networking supercycle is no longer a pitch but booked business. Cisco guided fiscal 2027 AI infrastructure revenue to $7.5bn, almost double fiscal 2026, and that revenue is already booked. x.comÂ
Dell, Cisco and HPE are overlooked winners of the next AI wave because their installed bases will be key for tech infrastructure in the AI revolution. x.com x.comÂ
Cisco's all-time-high stock price overstates how expensive it is, because it ignores more than 20 years of massive buybacks. Even after today's surge, Cisco's market cap is still below its all-time high. x.comÂ
Nvidia in 2026 is not Cisco in 2000: it grows over 100% a year at far lower multiples, making it still an amazing buy and likely the first $10T company, possibly by 2028. Cisco peaked near 200x earnings, 30x sales and 176x FCF on 55% growth; Nvidia trades at 30x, 18x and 45x with 75% gross margins. Forward, it is about 20x earnings and 22x FCF, near all-time lows, and supply constraints and contracts let it guide a full year ahead for the first time. A $6T cap would not mean overvalued. x.com … Show more
Nvidia is still growing into its AI valuation, unlike Cisco in 2000, which was growing nothing but a tech bubble. The comparison between today's Nvidia and 2000's Cisco cuts in Nvidia's favor because its valuation is backed by growth rather than bubble pricing. x.comÂ
Cisco is drawing aggressive bullish options flow and institutional accumulation ahead of earnings. Someone sold $15 million of January 2028 puts that are $28 in the money, and institutions have accumulated around $117 since the last earnings report broke the stock out of a nearly three-decade base. x.comÂ
Nvidia is undervalued, not the poster child of an AI bubble. Cisco traded near 200x earnings at the dot-com peak, while Nvidia trades around 20x, about a tenth of that; even after Cisco's roughly 90% crash, its P/E was about where Nvidia's is today. Nvidia just delivered 106% year-over-year revenue growth and guided next year's growth above 70%, so the AI boom is not over. Unprofitable $100 billion-plus companies are better bubble candidates. x.com x.com x.comÂ
