Oh Come On!
Investor, Venture Capital Background
NewtekOne has quadrupled deposits in three years, and AI agents should extend that trend rather than stop it. Once consumers set up a trusted agent to move cash, big banks can't stem outflows with small rate bumps. An agent might instead shift cash into CDs at the same bank, which still hurts incumbents' net interest margin. x.comÂ
Bank of America risks losing its near-free checking deposits if cash agents move idle balances out between paydays. If software forecasts bills and refills checking before they're due, a fat cushion at the bank stops making sense; the bank keeps the customer but loses the cheap deposit. BAC averaged $957B of consumer deposits last quarter, 59% in checking, and paying more to keep cash hurts the spread. Broader transfer authority would speed outflows; for now, watch deposit costs. x.comÂ
Bank stocks look buyable if systematic selling is reacting to a flatter yield curve: the front end that drives earnings has barely moved. JPMorgan and Citi card spending rose 10% and 13%, and Citi and Wells Fargo reported lower credit losses. Wells expects steady margins and improving interest income as loans grow and old fixed-rate assets roll into higher yields. Funds crowded into banks before results, limiting near-term buyers. x.comÂ
The big six US banks should report great Q2 results as the front line of a solid economy. Net interest income, fee growth, steady credit trends and capital levels all look supportive, and valuations remain cheap, leaving opportunities to add. x.comÂ
SoFi's falling loan platform volumes reflect its bank charter at work, not tightening credit. Deposits now fund 96% of the balance sheet, up from 78% in 2023, and CET1 is 21.1%, so capacity outgrows originations and platform sales shrink mechanically; a roughly 13% loan coupon versus 3% deposit costs likely favors holding loans. Record-tight 86bp securitization spreads show buyers aren't retreating. The bull case rests on member growth, now 35%, staying solidly double-digit for several years. … Show more
Bank of America's Q1 shows a bank making money from market chaos, undercutting the recession pricing on large-cap financials. Revenue of $30.27 billion beat estimates by $1.64 billion, net interest income of $15.75 billion topped the $15.37 billion estimate, and equities trading of $2.83 billion beat $2.51 billion as the bank captured volatility. FICC trading missed at $3.50 billion versus $3.78 billion, the one soft spot. x.com x.comÂ
Circle is a long-term buy because USDC is becoming the wallet of AI agents, which need autonomous, programmable micropayments that credit cards cannot handle. USDC already carries 99.8% of x402 agentic payments, and Circle launched Agent Stack. Per Mizuho, USDC's adjusted volume overtook Tether's this year. High-for-longer rates lift reserve income. At about 95x forward earnings and EPS seen falling 49% in 2026, the payoff is 2027-28, so a pullback is the better entry. x.comÂ
US regional banks are among the underowned, lower-volatility areas now ripping, driven partly by earnings and an overall rotation. Alongside transports, medical devices and homebuilders, they are drawing money as overcrowded, highly margined, growth-at-any-cost areas such as semiconductors are unwound. x.comÂ
AI savings agents threaten the deposit spread behind the four largest US banks' profits. Per a Jefferies report, UK firm Riff's agent automatically moves money out of zero-interest accounts; if it scales, such balances could fall 80% and deposit margins from 190 to about 20 basis points, a hit near 80% of major UK bank profits. JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup earned $69B of net interest income last quarter, over double their profits. Jefferies calls it 'when, not if'. x.com … Show more
