Oh Come On!
Investor, Venture Capital Background
Bitcoin is surging because the US is heading toward Weimar Republic-style money printing that the public has learned to stomach. Per The Kobeissi Letter, the Fed has bought $237 billion of Treasuries since December, lifting its holdings to $4.4 trillion and total assets to $6.7 trillion, effectively propping up the Treasury market. x.comÂ
Historic debt levels and currency debasement make Bitcoin's role as a store of value more important than ever, countering Jason Calacanis's call to sell it. x.comÂ
Government will never stop printing money, which should make bitcoin, gold and land do well for two decades. x.comÂ
The Fed's continuing inflation focus and prospect of expensive money for longer are eroding Bitcoin's initial relief from the rate hold. At the 3.75%-4.00% hold, two officials voted to hike; Warsh left further tightening open but did not commit to a December hike. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF drew $136M yesterday, its third straight inflow session, showing buyers are still present. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin benefits as the risk of creating gold through alchemy has entered public consciousness. That perceived threat to gold's scarcity supports a long Bitcoin position as a persistent theme. x.comÂ
Bitcoin matters far more than AI because it solves money printing, the most important economic problem there is. The Fed created $3 trillion of new dollars in 13 weeks, and without sound money there is no reliable power or any of its downstream benefits. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin's rally should be faded because the Treasury's bond buying is not QE. Bitcoin rallied after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said purchases of longer-dated Treasuries would double from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, tiny next to Fed QE, where the Fed prints money to buy Treasuries. No crisis warrants new QE, and Fed chair Warsh would lose credibility on getting inflation to 2% if seen following Trump's push to lower long-term rates. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com x.com … Show more
Gold and bitcoin should benefit from debasement as the US government, now the least credible it has ever been, faces higher borrowing costs that make its growing debt harder to finance, leading to money printing and more inflation. Bonds' risk-free status is eroding as the 10-year signals rising inflation and Fed hikes fail to slow a hot economy or fix an energy supply shock. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's rebound faces constrained upside from dealer hedging and weak US spot demand. Seventy percent of dealer gamma sits at $75,000-$82,000 ahead of Friday's $11B options expiry; the Coinbase premium had no positive days in October and an $83,000 fakeout keeps traders defensive. The Fed hold spurred relief, ETFs added $110.34M and $176M, and record US debt drives long-term accumulation. A hot PCE print would raise December hike odds and pressure Bitcoin through higher yields. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin and gold should benefit because money printing is now unavoidable. Since COVID, the US is past the point of no return, and any plan other than printing risks total collapse and civil or global war. x.comÂ
