Dray
Finance Student, Stock Investor, Technology & Business
Quality and price favor these eight stocks. Amazon improves as its multiple falls; Uber generates serious cash flow; Netflix is more profitable at a lower multiple; ServiceNow grew amid multiple compression. SoFi's appeal hinges on earnings near management's long-term expectations. McDonald's ranks among the world's highest-quality businesses at one of its more reasonable valuations in years. AI disruption weighs on Adobe's valuation; Brookfield compounds assets at a comfortable long-term price. … Show more
Netflix, MercadoLibre, Broadcom, ServiceNow, Microsoft, Adobe, Amazon, Nvidia and Booking still trade below fair value, even with the market close to all-time highs again. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta are not getting cheap; their multiples are sliding because separate monopolies are turning into one competitive market. They now spend enormous sums to sell the same AI to the same customers, funded largely by cyclical ads, on unproven returns. Microsoft faces AI eating per-seat licensing, Amazon fights in both retail and cloud, Alphabet's search premium is gone, and Meta keeps going all in for less. Markets can't price not knowing what a business will be. … Show more
Rapid revenue growth makes the capex bear case harder to justify for Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon. Their latest cited growth rates are 18%, 23%, 28% and 16% in Q2, respectively; their scale does not seem to be slowing them as expected. x.com
Microsoft, ServiceNow, Netflix, Meta Platforms, S&P Global, Amazon, Fair Isaac and Novo Nordisk look like a great opportunity today as high-quality companies, on the view that over the long term a stock's valuation tracks its earnings growth, so price should follow EPS. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Nvidia is the cheapest Magnificent Seven stock on a five-year PEG ratio at 0.72, below the 1.0 fair-value mark, while Microsoft at 1.33, Amazon at 1.81, Alphabet at 2.34, Apple at 2.43 and Tesla at 5.87 are expensive for their growth. That valuation dispersion is massive, and the market is mispricing some of them. x.com x.com
Over time, stocks track cash flows, and Microsoft, Netflix, Mastercard, ServiceNow, Meta Platforms and MercadoLibre are six quality companies whose shares have historically done exactly that, until now. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Amazon looks cheap against its expected long-term earnings growth if that growth proves accurate. Its five-year consensus growth is the fastest in the Magnificent 7 after Nvidia, while its 0.90 forward P/E-to-growth ratio is the lowest excluding Nvidia. x.com x.com
ServiceNow's growth looks likely to keep slowing, yet it trades at 50x 2027 GAAP EPS versus 20-25x for Microsoft, Google and Amazon growing as fast or faster. Subscription revenue grew about 21%, but the customer base is flat, so growth relies on upselling modules. Operating margin dipped and stock-based pay rose. Customers are mixed on its AI products and delay over price. Big SaaS firms near 20% growth often slide faster than expected, and its long-term targets look hard to reach. x.com x.com
Fast peer-cloud growth makes a bullish Amazon earnings view hard to resist. Azure grew 48% and Google Cloud 103%; the forecast is for 42%+ AWS growth. AWS is expected to grow over 40% annually over the next two years, so selling Amazon here risks missing that growth. x.com x.com