Mindset for Money
CPA, Financial Analyst, Former Big Four Auditor
Cash generation and market values have diverged for these twelve beaten-down stocks. Over the long term, valuations tend to follow the cash businesses produce; the charts compare quarterly free cash flow with market capitalization for Uber, Netflix, Intuit, Adobe, PayPal, McDonald's, Snap, Duolingo, Chewy, Pinterest, Reddit and e.l.f. Beauty. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, ServiceNow, UnitedHealth, Mastercard, MercadoLibre and Netflix offer the most quality for the price paid. As Warren Buffett put it, price is what you pay and value is what you get. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's earnings growth cannot keep relying on price increases or a one-time ad-tier rollout when future ad growth depends on impressions. The password-sharing crackdown, ad tier and repeated price hikes amid declining time spent signal a mature business; podcasts and live sports look like attempts to find another growth leg. There is no reason to own the stock beyond its discount to historical valuation, which it should command. x.com x.comÂ
Rapid revenue growth makes the capex bear case harder to justify for Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon. Their latest cited growth rates are 18%, 23%, 28% and 16% in Q2, respectively; their scale does not seem to be slowing them as expected. x.comÂ
MercadoLibre's commerce and fintech revenue growth underpins the view that its shares are undervalued at current prices. The attached chart shows quarterly commerce services revenue reaching $4.3 billion and fintech revenue $4.4 billion in June 2026, up from $769 million and $467 million in March 2021. x.comÂ
ServiceNow's costs are rising far faster than revenue without the RPO acceleration management promised. Q3 revenue rose 21%, while total cost of revenue climbed 56% and net income fell 45%; stock compensation appears to be using about half of free cash flow. The selloff looks deserved, though the shares are now closer to fair value. Sustainable margins and measurable returns remain the test. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Quality and price favor these eight stocks. Amazon improves as its multiple falls; Uber generates serious cash flow; Netflix is more profitable at a lower multiple; ServiceNow grew amid multiple compression. SoFi's appeal hinges on earnings near management's long-term expectations. McDonald's ranks among the world's highest-quality businesses at one of its more reasonable valuations in years. AI disruption weighs on Adobe's valuation; Brookfield compounds assets at a comfortable long-term price. … Show more
Microsoft, ServiceNow, Netflix, Meta Platforms, S&P Global, Amazon, Fair Isaac and Novo Nordisk look like a great opportunity today as high-quality companies, on the view that over the long term a stock's valuation tracks its earnings growth, so price should follow EPS. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's competition and valuation leave its risk/reward well behind other opportunities. It competes with Amazon, Disney, Apple and YouTube, while trading at about 20x next-twelve-month earnings for roughly 14% annual EPS growth over the next few years. It is mostly a great company, but these numbers do not make it a multibagger. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Growth in operating metrics supports owning more SoFi, Brookfield, Amazon, Netflix, Uber and Snap: all six look seriously underestimated right now. Stock Analysis charts show SoFi revenue at $1.2B, Brookfield Wealth Solutions funds from operations at $480M, AWS revenue at $42.23B, Netflix revenue at $12.56B, Uber revenue at $14.19B and Snap other-segment revenue at $316.47M. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ