Say No To Trading
Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management
Ollie's Bargain Outlet is worth avoiding because the bargain model has weakened: even garage sales are no longer deals, with people selling items there and on Facebook Marketplace for one-third to two-thirds of new retail value. Per @wilson_eth, most Ollie's stores are worse to shop than Big Lots, falling apart and looking like a giant garage sale. x.comÂ
Off-price retailers TJX and Ross Stores have almost everything going for them except broad consumer weakness, and even there they probably benefit from trade-down, or are far less hurt than many consumer categories. Ross is crushing it, while TJX gets too much hate: relatively weaker, but its business is not falling apart, and the two are not just in a knife fight for share. x.com x.comÂ
Dollar General, Ollie's and AutoZone should hold up in tough times by selling everyday essentials, closeout bargains and what keeps cars running. Dollar General is the top pick and a Buy, AutoZone a Buy and Ollie's a Speculative Buy. Recession-ready does not mean recession-proof. x.comÂ
Ollie's Bargain Outlet is among the companies reporting this week, with thoughts on its earnings shared alongside Campbell's, Duluth and Lululemon. x.comÂ
