Abercrombie & Fitch can define what is cool, while Lululemon is a category leader that would have to change its identity to adapt. Abercrombie executed its e-commerce pivot, cut lower-tier mall exposure and de-emphasized logos, freeing it to be more creative. Fashion retail remains tough, with inventory planned 6-9 months out and price-sensitive consumers, but it trades at 7x earnings, buys back 12% of shares a year and holds $14 a share in cash on a $77 stock. x.com  x.com  x.com 

lululemon looks cheap at about 5x cash earnings, versus the 12x retailers usually get. Fair value sits at $221.42-$281.80, or 12x next year's cash earnings give or take 12%, leaving the $101.30 stock 54% below the low end. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com 

Ollie's Bargain Outlet is worth avoiding because the bargain model has weakened: even garage sales are no longer deals, with people selling items there and on Facebook Marketplace for one-third to two-thirds of new retail value. Per @wilson_eth, most Ollie's stores are worse to shop than Big Lots, falling apart and looking like a giant garage sale. x.com 

Off-price retailers TJX and Ross Stores have almost everything going for them except broad consumer weakness, and even there they probably benefit from trade-down, or are far less hurt than many consumer categories. Ross is crushing it, while TJX gets too much hate: relatively weaker, but its business is not falling apart, and the two are not just in a knife fight for share. x.com  x.com