Netflix's 11.5% year-over-year paid-membership growth shows the business is still expanding despite the stock's 43% fall over the past year. Revenue grew 13.4% year over year too, making this look like a broken stock, not a broken company. x.comÂ
Dray
Finance Student, Stock Investor, Technology & Business
Netflix trades at its cheapest valuation after falling over 41% in a year, despite a long growth runway. Its CFO says Netflix captures just 7% of its addressable revenue market, and it has 300 million paid subscribers. Bill Ackman reinvested roughly $1B in Q2, and Congressman Cleo Fields has made six purchases in the past year. x.comÂ
Netflix's improving engagement and record free-cash-flow yield make its continued stock decline look misplaced. Viewing hours rose 24% year over year; CEO Greg Peters said Q3 churn improved globally and in the US, beating forecasts. CFO Spence Neumann expects sustained double-digit revenue growth. x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's control of its own content keeps growth avenues open even as quality and popularity ebb and flow. Production is costly, but being able to make more is hugely underrated. YouTube pays creators more than double what Netflix spends; its content is not free. Ads need time to gain traction, with live sports where they should prove their worth. Solid earnings outweigh weak short-term guidance; Netflix should become one of Wall Street's hottest stocks again, with targets well into the $150s. … Show more
Netflix faces high costs to keep producing major hits, while live TV is expensive and competitive and viewing habits are changing rapidly. It remains a good business and the stock should eventually find support, but even after its decline it is not appealing at this level. x.comÂ
Netflix's growing free cash flow leaves room to keep returning capital to shareholders. It repurchased about $4.8 billion of shares in Q3 and nearly $13 billion over the past 12 months, supporting long-term bullishness. x.comÂ
Netflix's ad tier can improve its long-run economics while the stock prices in decline. It is the second most-watched platform on US TV behind YouTube; ad-tier members pay subscriptions and generate ad revenue, with room to improve fill and pricing. Revenue growth, margins and buybacks underpin an Overweight rating and $103 target, 46% upside at the preview price. The quarter was solid, but the soft Q4 guide and ad forecast cut from $3B to ~$2.7B are setbacks the author sees as fixable. x.com … Show more
Netflix's earnings growth cannot keep relying on price increases or a one-time ad-tier rollout when future ad growth depends on impressions. The password-sharing crackdown, ad tier and repeated price hikes amid declining time spent signal a mature business; podcasts and live sports look like attempts to find another growth leg. There is no reason to own the stock beyond its discount to historical valuation, which it should command. x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's below-market multiple and expected revenue growth should limit downside despite another quarterly guidance miss. At 19.2x FY2026 EPS, it trades below the S&P 500 multiple with 10% long-term revenue growth. Third-quarter results broadly met expectations, but fourth-quarter revenue, operating income, EPS and margin guidance missed Wall Street estimates; last week's 6% workforce cut had telegraphed weakness. x.comÂ
Netflix's long-term risk/reward is turning increasingly attractive as the stock tests a key weekly support zone at $65-68. There is no real reason to panic; it is an easy buy for long-term investors, and current prices look interesting for gradual accumulation. The long-term trend is still bearish, with the stock below its 200-week moving average and SuperTrend Cloud and selling pressure elevated; resistance sits at $74-77. x.comÂ
Netflix's revenue growth keeps slowing, with little sign yet that the trend will reverse. Third-quarter growth fell to 11.8% from 13.4% in the prior quarter; profit beat mainly on expense timing, while slower product rollouts held back revenue guidance. Competition remains the main concern: Apple, Amazon and Alphabet can spend heavily on streaming without relying on their libraries for profit. Nothing in the report was alarmingly bad, but there is little to get excited about. x.comÂ
Netflix's per-share math now works for holders: unlike in 2022, when it was still diluting shareholders, earnings are up 33% while the share count is down 1.5%. That makes the setup more interesting, because the company is no longer just growing the business; each remaining shareholder owns more of it. This builds on @wealthmatica's point that Netflix trades near 2022-low valuations while expected to grow EPS about 22% a year, backed by heavy buybacks and ad revenue up 100% year over year. x.comÂ