ServiceNow's unexpected expense surge makes its rich valuation more vulnerable in a struggling software sector. Revenue rose 21%, but spending drove an EPS miss and one quarter of guided cRPO deceleration; wider market conditions could hurt near term. The 20% selloff looks excessive, and few software companies should benefit as much from AI. Management could deliver over 3-5 years, though the stock is only close to a buy again now; below $100 looks good for the long term. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Microsoft's salesforce and governed platform unlock AI spending at conservative firms. Faster enterprise than consumer AI adoption makes it effectively the only pure play. M365 Commercial may top 20% growth next quarter, sooner than expected on tonight's guide; GitHub resegmentation helps, but it should do so this year anyway. Azure and M365, two-thirds of revenue, should grow above 50% and 20% and may accelerate. $24-25 CY27 EPS remains achievable, implying under 22x forward earnings. x.com  … Show more

AI is forcing a repricing of the enterprise software business model, and for ServiceNow and SAP the reset is not finished. Claude Managed Agents eased production AI deployment, ServiceNow's AI bundling raised monetization questions, and SAP warned of short-term pain like its cloud-migration margin squeeze. Multiples compress before new economics are understood, and most software still trades at a premium on GAAP P/E and EV/FCF ex-stock comp. Workday at 1.7x revenue hints at a floor. x.com 

Software looks like a group that can lead the market higher, with many names from Palantir and ServiceNow to Zeta and MongoDB moving from late Stage 4 or Stage 1 into early Stage 2 uptrends. Sentiment is at an all-time low on fears that AI agents and chatbots will replace SaaS. AI will disrupt some areas, but many software businesses are using it to grow revenue, ship faster and expand operating leverage, and will thrive. The charts will separate survivors from the dead. x.com  x.com 

Adobe, Salesforce and ServiceNow still generate massive cash flow, push deeper into AI and sit at the center of enterprise operations. Three of the biggest SaaS names remain beaten up in 2026; their valuations have been crushed, but the long-term opportunity may not have been. The market has swung way too far against them. x.com 

Microsoft and software stocks broadly still look expensive, because AI will get exponentially better over the next two years and the market may reset software valuations much lower. Software valuations have always been ludicrous, and heavy stock-based compensation behind many software revenues is widely ignored. Winners will emerge, but picking them is not worth trying. x.com  x.com 

Agentic AI, which completes tasks autonomously rather than just answering questions, is the next $1T software wave and is happening now. Microsoft is putting Copilot agents in every Office seat; Salesforce's Agentforce has $800M ARR, up 169%, across 29,000 deals; ServiceNow sells workflow agents on a raised 2026 outlook; Palantir builds autonomous defense intelligence agents; Cloudflare provides edge delivery for deployed agents; and DigitalOcean supplies infrastructure for agentic workloads. … Show more

Microsoft, ServiceNow and Salesforce could capture the next AI wave because it will be software, not chips. Nvidia's CEO said there will be 100x more agents using enterprise tools, making software vendors the real bottleneck. After 2025's winners Nebius, SanDisk and CoreWeave, the next trillion dollars may go to companies charging AI agents monthly subscriptions. x.com 

ServiceNow's growth looks likely to keep slowing, yet it trades at 50x 2027 GAAP EPS versus 20-25x for Microsoft, Google and Amazon growing as fast or faster. Subscription revenue grew about 21%, but the customer base is flat, so growth relies on upselling modules. Operating margin dipped and stock-based pay rose. Customers are mixed on its AI products and delay over price. Big SaaS firms near 20% growth often slide faster than expected, and its long-term targets look hard to reach. x.com  x.com 

Money is likely to rotate from crowded, richly valued AI hardware into undervalued large-cap AI beneficiaries in software, fintech and power. Microsoft's Copilot monetization is just starting, Oracle's cloud is accelerating at a discount to hyperscalers, ServiceNow gains from agentic automation, Snowflake's valuation is long compressed, and Salesforce is overlooked. SoFi gains from rate cuts, Robinhood from crypto and options, and Constellation and Vistra from power, AI's bottleneck. x.com