Microsoft's OpenAI exposure is a very good reason to keep it alongside Anthropic exposure through Alphabet and Amazon. The prior thought of reducing or exiting Microsoft has given way to a tentative hold, with no plans to add for now. x.com 

Diversified cash flows in the billions make the AI-buildout basket more appealing than standalone model companies. Many members look reasonably priced and have longer records of delivering returns; Anthropic and OpenAI look much more like gambles at current valuations, though either could appeal at the right price. A possible equal-weight portfolio to revisit in five years includes Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle and SpaceX. x.com  x.com 

Microsoft is the most exposed big tech company in the AI spending wave, and an AI writedown would land on it first. It had a genuine moat that needed almost no capital, but pledged $80B in data center spending, canceled Claude Code licenses because token costs were untenable, and tied its destiny to OpenAI, which it does not control. x.com 

Amazon and Alphabet offer early exposure to Anthropic through their shares, and both are better run companies than Anthropic. x.com 

Alphabet's businesses beyond search are why it will lead the real AI boom. Google Cloud, DeepMind and Waymo broaden its reach, and its $900 million SpaceX investment is now worth $85 billion. Fear emerging as the shares fall is an opportunity; a decline toward the buy zone is welcome, even as Q3 capex has taken a large hit out of free cash flow. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Hyperscalers' incremental return on capital is cratering, so hard spending decisions are coming. In the June quarter, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet grew LTM EBIT 20% but needed 38% more deployed capital, before token prices cratered and with much demand from non-self-sustaining OpenAI. Compute and models may become a utility-like commodity. Insiders are selling, with Jeff Bezos filing to sell $4B of Amazon stock, and Google's $25B bond deal widened hyperscaler credit spreads. x.com  x.com 

AI's threat to incumbent tech makes SpaceX the preferred investment for the next decade. AI has begun taking business from Google, with Amazon and Apple next; Microsoft's 27% workforce reduction program signals desperation. x.com 

The world's largest companies stand to benefit most from AI. Buying Meta, Amazon, Nvidia, Alphabet and Microsoft might be enough to outperform the market over the next few years. x.com 

Microsoft is losing AI share in coding, and private markets are signaling it before public ones. Jordan Novet lays out how GitHub lost the AI coding market, while Anthropic's valuation rose from $380 billion to $900 billion as Claude Code surged and SpaceX holds a $60 billion option on Cursor. Microsoft is down 13% this year; the private market is the leading indicator of these market-share shifts. x.com 

Anthropic's compute commitments point to future revenue for Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Broadcom and Nvidia. Its S-1 reports 14-fold revenue growth, positive second-quarter 2026 EBIT and more than $600 billion committed to compute through 2045. The AI trade is alive and well, more than expected, provided demand keeps pace with those commitments. x.com