Diversified cash flows in the billions make the AI-buildout basket more appealing than standalone model companies. Many members look reasonably priced and have longer records of delivering returns; Anthropic and OpenAI look much more like gambles at current valuations, though either could appeal at the right price. A possible equal-weight portfolio to revisit in five years includes Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle and SpaceX. x.com  x.com 

Google Cloud's accelerating growth positions it to lead the AI cloud market, strengthening Alphabet beyond Search. It may pass Azure next quarter, then AWS, rising from #3 to #1 in 18-24 months. Selling its Anthropic stake could fund 12-18 months of capex and buybacks, but moving roughly $300B at market price without harming their TPU and Cloud partnership is unlikely. Alphabet is cheaper than Anthropic on sales or earnings multiples; the market likely expects a 2027 capital raise. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Amazon's retail business makes it an unattractive way to own ANT exposure now that hyperscalers are no longer necessary for it. x.com 

Amazon is a pretty good, relatively safe play given its holdings in Anthropic. x.com 

Microsoft's OpenAI exposure is a very good reason to keep it alongside Anthropic exposure through Alphabet and Amazon. The prior thought of reducing or exiting Microsoft has given way to a tentative hold, with no plans to add for now. x.com 

Alphabet's core Search growth is slowing while AI spending surges, making the selloff look deserved despite fast Cloud growth. Search growth fell from 19% to 17% to 12% over three quarters; Search now represents just under half of revenue. The stock could fall to $250, though Amazon is the preferred buy. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Anthropic's mostly business-facing LLM faces easier customer switching than Alphabet's entrenched consumer products. Even with the best LLM, businesses can switch to cheaper good-enough models; Google has spent 25 years embedding search, email, Maps, Android and YouTube. Reuters reports some investors discussed $1.5T for its IPO; $2.2T was a whisper. Anthropic should in no way be worth half of Alphabet now; $16.8B Q3 revenue is not profit, leaving zero FOMO for its IPO. x.com 

Anthropic's lack of profit makes NVIDIA, Broadcom, Meta and Amazon preferable investments. Their forward P/Es are 15x, 17.5x, 20x and 25x, respectively. x.com 

Google's search is becoming less profitable as AI agents disrupt its core business. Even perfect execution could make the transition painful, and Google is famously poor at new products. Its conduct over the past decade also raises stronger ethical objections than Meta's. Despite strong fundamentals, explosive cloud growth, no real risk and substantial growth ahead, Alphabet is unattractive relative to most other major AI companies. x.com 

Amazon, Alphabet, Salesforce and Zoom are the public way to own Anthropic, whose run-rate revenue has passed $30B from about $9B at end-2025, with Claude Code above $2.5B and a rumored next valuation of $850-900B+. Amazon's stake is marked above $70B, about 2.4% of its market cap; Alphabet's possible 15% stake is worth about $57B, or 1.2%; Salesforce's estimated 1% stake is about 2.2% of its value; and Zoom's estimated $2-4B stake is 6-13%. Microsoft and Nvidia's exposure is negligible. x.com