Kevin Xu
Founder of AfterHour, CEO of Alpha
Amazon and Alphabet offer early exposure to Anthropic through their shares, and both are better run companies than Anthropic. x.comÂ
Diversified cash flows in the billions make the AI-buildout basket more appealing than standalone model companies. Many members look reasonably priced and have longer records of delivering returns; Anthropic and OpenAI look much more like gambles at current valuations, though either could appeal at the right price. A possible equal-weight portfolio to revisit in five years includes Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle and SpaceX. x.com x.comÂ
Amazon's retail business makes it an unattractive way to own ANT exposure now that hyperscalers are no longer necessary for it. x.comÂ
Amazon is a good stock now because Anthropic is taking off. x.comÂ
Amazon is wholly undervalued given its stake in Anthropic. @Banana3Stocks notes Anthropic's revenue run rate has passed $65 billion ahead of its IPO, and Amazon owns 20% of Anthropic. x.comÂ
Amazon warrants caution in the short term because its capex spending is getting wild and free cash flow is taking a hit, expected to turn negative this year. x.comÂ
Amazon's 15-20% ownership of Anthropic gives the stock a nice tail reward heading into Anthropic's IPO next month. x.comÂ
Anthropic's lack of profit makes NVIDIA, Broadcom, Meta and Amazon preferable investments. Their forward P/Es are 15x, 17.5x, 20x and 25x, respectively. x.comÂ
Amazon is one of the market's great opportunity-cost traps. After its earnings and historic capex spending, the stock risks moving sideways for a long period, locking up capital that could earn much better returns elsewhere. x.comÂ
Amazon looks attractive because AWS is growing 36% year over year while being less exposed to OpenAI and Anthropic than peers. That combination offers strong growth with less single-lab risk, yet Amazon trades near its lowest valuation ever. x.comÂ