Amazon's 15-20% ownership of Anthropic gives the stock a nice tail reward heading into Anthropic's IPO next month. x.comÂ
John Tinsman
Founder of AOT Invest, Portfolio Manager of AOTG/AOTS ETFs
Amazon is wholly undervalued given its stake in Anthropic. @Banana3Stocks notes Anthropic's revenue run rate has passed $65 billion ahead of its IPO, and Amazon owns 20% of Anthropic. x.comÂ
Amazon and Alphabet offer early exposure to Anthropic through their shares, and both are better run companies than Anthropic. x.comÂ
Amazon is uninvestable despite looking very cheap on above-consensus estimates, because everyone else's numbers are also above the Street, leaving no incremental buyers. x.comÂ
An Anthropic IPO could re-rate Amazon through three channels at once: its equity stake, AWS and Trainium. Per the FT, investors are betting Anthropic could list as soon as October at a valuation discussed above $2T; Amazon is a major shareholder and AWS its main cloud and training partner, with their latest deal covering up to 5GW of compute. The pullback from near $287 toward $260-266, where the daily 21-day EMA and a double-bottom neckline sit, is a normal reset after a strong run. x.comÂ
Amazon is a pretty good, relatively safe play given its holdings in Anthropic. x.comÂ
Amazon is one of the market's great opportunity-cost traps. After its earnings and historic capex spending, the stock risks moving sideways for a long period, locking up capital that could earn much better returns elsewhere. x.comÂ
Google Cloud's accelerating growth positions it to lead the AI cloud market, strengthening Alphabet beyond Search. It may pass Azure next quarter, then AWS, rising from #3 to #1 in 18-24 months. Selling its Anthropic stake could fund 12-18 months of capex and buybacks, but moving roughly $300B at market price without harming their TPU and Cloud partnership is unlikely. Alphabet is cheaper than Anthropic on sales or earnings multiples; the market likely expects a 2027 capital raise. x.com x.com … Show more
Amazon is a good stock now because Anthropic is taking off. x.comÂ
Amazon, Alphabet, Zoom and SK Telecom stand to benefit as Anthropic's valuation heads above $2 trillion, which Polymarket now projects this year. Anthropic's revenue run rate is around $50 billion and could reach $100 billion or more by year end. x.com x.comÂ
Diversified cash flows in the billions make the AI-buildout basket more appealing than standalone model companies. Many members look reasonably priced and have longer records of delivering returns; Anthropic and OpenAI look much more like gambles at current valuations, though either could appeal at the right price. A possible equal-weight portfolio to revisit in five years includes Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle and SpaceX. x.com x.comÂ