Diamond Rapids
Semiconductor & Geopolitical Equity Commentary
Amazon and Alphabet offer early exposure to Anthropic through their shares, and both are better run companies than Anthropic. x.comÂ
Amazon is a pretty good, relatively safe play given its holdings in Anthropic. x.comÂ
Amazon is uninvestable despite looking very cheap on above-consensus estimates, because everyone else's numbers are also above the Street, leaving no incremental buyers. x.comÂ
Amazon is wholly undervalued given its stake in Anthropic. @Banana3Stocks notes Anthropic's revenue run rate has passed $65 billion ahead of its IPO, and Amazon owns 20% of Anthropic. x.comÂ
Amazon's 15-20% ownership of Anthropic gives the stock a nice tail reward heading into Anthropic's IPO next month. x.comÂ
Amazon warrants caution in the short term because its capex spending is getting wild and free cash flow is taking a hit, expected to turn negative this year. x.comÂ
Amazon's AWS grew 39% on $46 billion of quarterly revenue, outweighing concern over the stock's 10% after-hours decline. Amazon is a buy below $200. x.comÂ
An Anthropic IPO could re-rate Amazon through three channels at once: its equity stake, AWS and Trainium. Per the FT, investors are betting Anthropic could list as soon as October at a valuation discussed above $2T; Amazon is a major shareholder and AWS its main cloud and training partner, with their latest deal covering up to 5GW of compute. The pullback from near $287 toward $260-266, where the daily 21-day EMA and a double-bottom neckline sit, is a normal reset after a strong run. x.comÂ
Diversified cash flows in the billions make the AI-buildout basket more appealing than standalone model companies. Many members look reasonably priced and have longer records of delivering returns; Anthropic and OpenAI look much more like gambles at current valuations, though either could appeal at the right price. A possible equal-weight portfolio to revisit in five years includes Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle and SpaceX. x.com x.comÂ
Amazon, Alphabet, Zoom and SK Telecom stand to benefit as Anthropic's valuation heads above $2 trillion, which Polymarket now projects this year. Anthropic's revenue run rate is around $50 billion and could reach $100 billion or more by year end. x.com x.comÂ