Mike
Investor, Creator of HiddenSmallCaps
Amazon, Alphabet, Salesforce and Zoom are the public way to own Anthropic, whose run-rate revenue has passed $30B from about $9B at end-2025, with Claude Code above $2.5B and a rumored next valuation of $850-900B+. Amazon's stake is marked above $70B, about 2.4% of its market cap; Alphabet's possible 15% stake is worth about $57B, or 1.2%; Salesforce's estimated 1% stake is about 2.2% of its value; and Zoom's estimated $2-4B stake is 6-13%. Microsoft and Nvidia's exposure is negligible. x.comÂ
Google Cloud's accelerating growth positions it to lead the AI cloud market, strengthening Alphabet beyond Search. It may pass Azure next quarter, then AWS, rising from #3 to #1 in 18-24 months. Selling its Anthropic stake could fund 12-18 months of capex and buybacks, but moving roughly $300B at market price without harming their TPU and Cloud partnership is unlikely. Alphabet is cheaper than Anthropic on sales or earnings multiples; the market likely expects a 2027 capital raise. x.com x.com … Show more
Hyperscalers' accelerating growth risks raising peak-growth concerns, making Alphabet the first to short. SouthernValue95 says hyperscalers are growing at their fastest rate since Covid while Anthropic is decelerating sharply. x.comÂ
Amazon and Alphabet offer early exposure to Anthropic through their shares, and both are better run companies than Anthropic. x.comÂ
Anthropic's compute commitments point to future revenue for Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Broadcom and Nvidia. Its S-1 reports 14-fold revenue growth, positive second-quarter 2026 EBIT and more than $600 billion committed to compute through 2045. The AI trade is alive and well, more than expected, provided demand keeps pace with those commitments. x.comÂ
Hyperscalers' incremental return on capital is cratering, so hard spending decisions are coming. In the June quarter, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet grew LTM EBIT 20% but needed 38% more deployed capital, before token prices cratered and with much demand from non-self-sustaining OpenAI. Compute and models may become a utility-like commodity. Insiders are selling, with Jeff Bezos filing to sell $4B of Amazon stock, and Google's $25B bond deal widened hyperscaler credit spreads. x.com x.comÂ
Amazon is wholly undervalued given its stake in Anthropic. @Banana3Stocks notes Anthropic's revenue run rate has passed $65 billion ahead of its IPO, and Amazon owns 20% of Anthropic. x.comÂ
Diversified cash flows in the billions make the AI-buildout basket more appealing than standalone model companies. Many members look reasonably priced and have longer records of delivering returns; Anthropic and OpenAI look much more like gambles at current valuations, though either could appeal at the right price. A possible equal-weight portfolio to revisit in five years includes Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle and SpaceX. x.com x.comÂ
Alphabet's price action looks weak relative to SpaceX, with the stock down 6%. One possible reason is that Anthropic may be shifting more business toward Micron memory and less toward Google's TPUs, though @mason__capital counters that memory is no substitute for TPUs. x.com x.comÂ
Anthropic's rapid growth is very bullish for its cloud and chip suppliers. Per @Futurenvesting, Anthropic now shows $44 billion of annual recurring revenue, up $14 billion or 46.6% in a month. That flows to Alphabet's Google Cloud, Amazon's AWS and Microsoft's Azure, Microsoft also being a shareholder, and to chipmakers Broadcom via Google Cloud, Marvell via AWS and Azure, plus AMD and Nvidia. x.comÂ