BuccoCapital Bloke
Technology & Markets Writer for Educated Guess
Meta's Muse is incredibly good, and the market has not fully priced it. It can search for a green puffer jacket, find live discount codes, apply them and buy at the cheapest price, or take a recipe and load a Whole Foods cart. Someone whose idea of AI is Google's search snippets, who hates and avoids AI, was blown away; this made sense to her. Meta was not up enough on the day. x.com x.comÂ
Meta's strong core platform matters most, outweighing the Muse debate and a few years of cash flow. Muse will sort itself out; at worst, new product offerings raise the table stakes and thereby secure the platform moat. x.comÂ
Muse gives Meta a way to monetize its massive installed base. Meta is now ready to pursue that opportunity. x.comÂ
A small advertising beat may not sustain Meta's stock after earnings if Muse cannot show durable use and paying customers to justify rising AI spending. Muse could monetize Meta's existing merchant base through subscriptions and more ad spend, but service costs and whether users keep paying remain unproven. Strong fourth-quarter guidance or firmer Muse usage and payment data would make the outlook more positive; September's rally alone does not establish a sell-the-news outcome. x.comÂ
Meta's established consumer distribution could give Muse an advantage in bringing AI agents to everyday users. The stock looks increasingly constructive heading into tomorrow's earnings. Muse has 10 million downloads, while Meta's apps reach billions and its ad network connects millions of businesses. If agents become a consumer interface for discovery and transactions, the economics could extend into commerce, advertising and business services. x.comÂ
Meta's Muse is likely to gain a major consumer-agent advantage from a network linking its users' agents. Meta's 3.5bn daily platform users offer unmatched distribution; 25% of 10mn Muse signups use it daily, with early retention twice Threads' initial rate. Muse is the best pure consumer agent today, and the odds of a rival surpassing it are low, though it is early and execution matters. The stock prices in little beyond Meta's core business. x.comÂ
Enthusiasm for Meta looks overdone now, because its Muse AI is likely to be cut off from many of its functions, as Amazon has just done, and competitors will emerge. The stock was a good buy in the $500s. x.comÂ
Amazon could dip as Meta integrates a variety of merchants with its Muse agent, one of the takeaways from Meta's product event. The stock's reaction is the thing to watch. x.comÂ
Meta's earnings offer little near-term upside because Muse user growth is mostly priced in and monetization remains vague. The market wants AI compute to turn into profit. Retention or paid-share commentary could help, but Zuckerberg is unlikely to provide it; SpaceX says Grokbot has 800K paid users, a high bar. Meta remains attractive long term. Higher AI capex guidance would show confidence Muse can repay the spending and be bullish for the whole AI infrastructure stack. x.comÂ
Meta's spending to support Muse and its frontier models is likely to precede monetization, leaving the stock vulnerable to high initial 2027 expense and capex guidance. A beat-and-raise quarter is expected, but the stock could react poorly to that guidance after its recent strong performance. x.comÂ
Meta's billions of users, distribution and integrated ecosystem could let its increasingly capable AI models reach extraordinary scale. Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full bring memory, focus and task execution, though Meta's reported model results still need independent validation. Meta is one of the highest-conviction stocks: as a megacap its upside may be less explosive than smaller names, but its risk/reward looks more favorable with potentially less downside in this environment. x.comÂ