Say No To Trading
Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management
Jack Henry is a better payments-adjacent pick than turnaround hopefuls PayPal, Fiserv and Global Payments. Earnings were perfectly fine, and it has a clean balance sheet, stable revenue tied to seven-year bank and credit union contracts, no direct consumer exposure and little retail attention. Its AI work with Anthropic is mainly as a customer, but COBOL modernization is a major need in banking. x.com x.comÂ
PayPal's near-flat growth and rising checkout competition leave it a Grade C, prove-it story. Q3 FY26 revenue rose just 2%; operating income fell 8% as restructuring charges rose from $69 million to $255 million, and net income fell 14%. The business still earns over $1 billion a quarter, but it is treading water. x.comÂ
PayPal's cost cuts and reserve releases prop up short-term numbers, while investing for growth wastes time. Its slow bleed gives delusional bulls hope, making it the ultimate value trap; it should not be a public company. x.comÂ
Global Payments needs clean free cash flow to make its buyback case credible. Its share count is down 13% in a year, while growth is still positive at 4.5%, aided by nominal inflation and Worldpay's e-commerce tailwind, though Worldpay grows more slowly than modern peers. x.comÂ
PayPal's growth has stalled and it faces too much fintech competition. That view could change if the company adapts, pivots and proves otherwise. x.comÂ
PayPal faces an existential competitive threat from X Money, which will kill its business. x.comÂ
PayPal's raised earnings and free-cash-flow guidance supports rejecting Stripe and Advent's $60.50-per-share offer. The shares now trade around $57, below the rejected bid, but that does not make the rejection a mistake. x.comÂ
Mastercard may be the only scaled, capital-light network benefiting from AI, with bloated technical debt uniquely addressable by coding tools. Nominal inflation-linked recurring revenues and hardware attach add to the case at low-teens free-cash-flow yields. While payments getting bid in a red market probably signals the rally is over, these traits could mean it is not. x.comÂ
Mastercard's payment and earnings growth make it more satisfying than ever to own amid Alphabet's and Amazon's post-earnings reactions. Q3 2026 revenue rose 14% to $9.8 billion, adjusted EPS rose 21% to $5.31, and adjusted operating margin was 60.5%. Volume grew 7%, cross-border volume 11%, and $3.8 billion went to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. x.comÂ
Strategy's bitcoin treasury can compound through downturns when few others can stomach the volatility. Among six names facing the loudest bears, Wendy's has pricing power and unit economics that shine when consumers trade down; PayPal strengthens as payments move online during uncertainty; UPS stays essential across market cycles; households and small businesses run their money on Intuit's software; JD's own logistics serves price-conscious shoppers at scale. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
PayPal's problem is deeply rooted poor management and a complete lack of ambition; it could have made a dozen moves over the years to expand and grow. Stripe appears to be the only buyer willing to take it on. x.com x.comÂ
