legen
Founder of InsiderWave, Politician Trade Tracking
Lithium Americas appeals simply because the Trump administration bought in and its stake is now under water. Per @Trump_portfolio, the administration agreed in October 2025 to take a 5% stake, about $82M at $3.39 a share; the stock traded well above that for a while but no longer does. x.comÂ
MP Materials and Lithium Americas are the names to own now because both have US government equity investments and have yet to rally on that political backing. The call replies to @citrini's quip about needing to get better at buying whatever the President of the United States says to buy. x.comÂ
Lithium Americas looks cheap against its estimated fair value of $5.45-$6.93, trading 41% below the low end of that range. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ
Lithium Americas likely faces downside as lithium oversupply and slower EV adoption pressure lithium prices and battery demand. A catalyst table citing S&P Global Commodity Insights, Reuters and Global X ranks both risks very high, noting Australian restarts, returning Zimbabwean supply and September global EV sales down 2% year over year. Puts on the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF also hedge the Lithium Americas holding. x.com x.comÂ
Downward earnings revisions among the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF's constituents add pressure to its existing downside case. Multiple bearish events continue to weigh on the fund, leaving the short thesis intact. x.comÂ
Lithium Americas' valuation should increasingly reflect a producing miner as Thacker Pass nears output, as mining stocks often rally into first production. Over 95% of detailed engineering and 70% of procurement are done, and Phase 1 is on track for mechanical completion by end-2027, producing 40,000 tonnes a year of battery-grade lithium carbonate, all locked up by GM. A $2.26 billion DOE loan, US supply-chain localization and a lithium-price rebound expected by Citi add support. x.comÂ
Sigma Lithium is the leader in ESG-approved lithium, positioned for accelerating demand as Chinese production slows. Demand is rising from data centers, drones, EVs and home batteries, and the West wants a geopolitically safe, ESG-approved supplier. Its Brazil mines have among the lowest costs as prices rise, a client-funded expansion to triple output by 2027, and the ability to enrich and resell fines to lift growth and margins at no added cost. Price action shows breakouts on rising volume. … Show more
REMX looks attractive because the market underestimates the massive demand for rare earth metals from robotics over the next decade. The ETF offers exposure without having to pick a winning company. About 30% is lithium stocks rather than rare earths, but lithium demand should also rise with electric and autonomous vehicles. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Lithium Argentina looks expensive at $6.33, trading at 19 times earnings versus the roughly 13 times miners usually get. Applying 13 times next year's expected $0.34 a share puts fair value at about $3.92 to $4.98, so the price sits about 27% above the top of that range, and that already leans on a forecast 42% above trailing earnings. The read is valuation levels only, without fundamental work. x.comÂ
Albemarle, a lithium play, shows a well-formed uptrend channel after pushing off support, and falling oil prices and easing rates should give it a better macro backdrop. It is also seeing outsized call option flow. x.com x.comÂ
