Rich Peter
Investor, Crypto, US Stocks & High-Dividend ETFs
Lithium Americas' valuation should increasingly reflect a producing miner as Thacker Pass nears output, as mining stocks often rally into first production. Over 95% of detailed engineering and 70% of procurement are done, and Phase 1 is on track for mechanical completion by end-2027, producing 40,000 tonnes a year of battery-grade lithium carbonate, all locked up by GM. A $2.26 billion DOE loan, US supply-chain localization and a lithium-price rebound expected by Citi add support. x.com
Lithium Americas has federal backing that removes bankruptcy risk, plus big upside when lithium recovers. The DOE committed up to $2.26 billion of low-interest loans for Thacker Pass's roughly $2.93 billion Phase 1, with a second $432 million drawdown in February; GM takes all Phase 1 output, and the company holds over $1.2 billion in cash. Pending legislation to remove Chinese sourcing from defense and EV supply chains, with DoD rules from January 2027, lifts its value as a US producer. x.com
Domestic rare-earth and critical-mineral supply chains will make this stock group a generational wealth builder this year. REalloys has Army negotiations and an EXIM letter of interest; USA Rare Earth is developing a mine-to-magnet chain; MP Materials is expanding into magnets; Energy Fuels processes rare earths; and Lithium Americas is advancing Thacker Pass with GM and DOE support. REalloys paid to be included in this list. x.com x.com x.com
Lithium Americas appeals simply because the Trump administration bought in and its stake is now under water. Per @Trump_portfolio, the administration agreed in October 2025 to take a 5% stake, about $82M at $3.39 a share; the stock traded well above that for a while but no longer does. x.com
Lithium Americas likely faces downside as lithium oversupply and slower EV adoption pressure lithium prices and battery demand. A catalyst table citing S&P Global Commodity Insights, Reuters and Global X ranks both risks very high, noting Australian restarts, returning Zimbabwean supply and September global EV sales down 2% year over year. Puts on the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF also hedge the Lithium Americas holding. x.com x.com
MP Materials and Lithium Americas are the names to own now because both have US government equity investments and have yet to rally on that political backing. The call replies to @citrini's quip about needing to get better at buying whatever the President of the United States says to buy. x.com
Sigma Lithium is the leader in ESG-approved lithium, positioned for accelerating demand as Chinese production slows. Demand is rising from data centers, drones, EVs and home batteries, and the West wants a geopolitically safe, ESG-approved supplier. Its Brazil mines have among the lowest costs as prices rise, a client-funded expansion to triple output by 2027, and the ability to enrich and resell fines to lift growth and margins at no added cost. Price action shows breakouts on rising volume. … Show more
Downward earnings revisions among the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF's constituents add pressure to its existing downside case. Multiple bearish events continue to weigh on the fund, leaving the short thesis intact. x.com
Atlas Lithium gives direct exposure to lithium, whose demand keeps getting re-rated as it becomes tied to defense, energy storage and broader infrastructure, not just electric vehicles. Atlas Lithium sits at the center of the critical-minerals push as the US and its allies actively work to secure supply chains. x.com x.com
EnerSys is a good long-term pick because it will have the only large lithium plant in the US in 2028. A post the author replies to calls it a multi-bagger in the making that still trades at a low valuation. x.com
Sungrow's storage margins are cyclical, not structural: as a systems integrator it profits from the cell price spread between signing and procurement. Q4 2025 storage gross margin fell from about 41% to 24% as rebounding lithium carbonate hit existing orders with a 6-9 month cost lag, and net profit dropped to ¥1.58 billion from ¥4.15 billion in Q3. Integrated CATL and BYD are stronger, and Chinese price competition is spreading overseas. Goldman cut its target to ¥150 from ¥157.3 (Neutral). … Show more
Cerberus's $100M joint venture gives Eos Energy the capital its long-duration storage story lacked. The venture will deploy 2GWh of zinc-based long-duration batteries, backed by $1.5B of performance insurance and a $150M rights offering. Lithium handles four hours while zinc handles days, and the grid cannot run on renewables without that; Cerberus doesn't do science projects. x.com
