EnerSys is a good long-term pick because it will have the only large lithium plant in the US in 2028. A post the author replies to calls it a multi-bagger in the making that still trades at a low valuation. x.comÂ
Asymmetric Bets
Hedge Fund Analyst, Private Company CFO, Idiosyncratic Stocks & Accelerating Fundamentals
EnerSys looks mispriced at about 15x forward earnings versus 23-31x for electrical equipment peers like nVent, Eaton and Hubbell riding the same AI power demand. It has beaten earnings 10 straight times, generated about $717M of free cash flow in 12 months, a near 10% yield, and lifted gross margin over 500 bps to 33.5%. Data center orders rose over 80% and defense revenue 24%. A third of adjusted earnings comes from a US tax credit that phases down after 2030; forklift batteries remain soft. … Show more
Nextpower is building on power for AI, the foundation of the AI secular bull market, which is sturdier than boom-and-bust software and chips. It is buying Prevalon Energy, a utility-scale battery storage company already engaged with hyperscalers, extending its rebrand from solar trackers into end-to-end solar and power platforms. Its last quarter brought 34% sales growth, a 2.25 GW Bisha Solar Project commitment, $953 million of cash with no debt and a $500 million buyback. x.comÂ
Lithium Americas' valuation should increasingly reflect a producing miner as Thacker Pass nears output, as mining stocks often rally into first production. Over 95% of detailed engineering and 70% of procurement are done, and Phase 1 is on track for mechanical completion by end-2027, producing 40,000 tonnes a year of battery-grade lithium carbonate, all locked up by GM. A $2.26 billion DOE loan, US supply-chain localization and a lithium-price rebound expected by Citi add support. x.comÂ