Marcos Milla
Former Analyst at the Federal Reserve, ETF/Stock Newsletter Author
The Nasdaq-100 is beating the S&P 500 because it holds 57.5% in tech and AI versus 38.4%, and the future is tech and AI. Micron, AMD and Intel make up 4.91%, 3.77% and 2.70% of the Nasdaq-100 versus 1.68%, 1.29% and 0.83% of the S&P 500, which has too little growth and semiconductor exposure and too much in low-growth stocks. x.comÂ
The Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF is one of the safest diversified ways to own the AI boom, holding many of the chip, cloud, software and platform leaders shaping the future rather than betting on one winner. Software companies building in AI could see stronger demand, growth and margins. The Nasdaq-100's tilt to fast-growing tech has delivered stronger revenue and earnings growth than the average S&P 500 company, so it should beat the S&P 500, for now, and compound at 15%+ a year for decades. x.com x.comÂ
AI, networks and power give these 12 stocks some of the decade's biggest tailwinds. Micron is one of three big HBM makers; Samsara connects fleets; IonQ builds quantum computers; Ciena supplies optics; GE Vernova and Eaton serve power demand; Dell ships AI servers. Netflix, the largest paid streamer, adds ads; Coupang, Korea's largest e-commerce platform, delivers same-day; Airbnb, the largest short-term rental marketplace, adds services; Arm enters data centers; CrowdStrike secures enterprises. … Show more
The S&P 500 rally is a concentration bet because earnings growth is coming from very few companies, while AI productivity gains are not spreading across the broader economy. Nvidia and Micron drive 34% of expected Q3 earnings growth, and ten companies account for two-thirds. Apollo's revenue-per-worker chart shows gains for the Magnificent Seven but little for the other 493 S&P 500 companies; most stocks that reflect the broader economy are down. x.com x.com x.comÂ
The Nasdaq 100 already effectively prices in a severe semiconductor recession. QQQ trades at about 20 times 2027 EPS versus a 10-year average forward P/E near 25; halving 2027 estimates for Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, Micron, Lam Research and Applied Materials would lift that only to 24.5. If the market instead traded at 20 times in that scenario, downside would be about 20%. Capex seems unlikely to be cut materially unless growth at AI labs such as Anthropic decelerates dramatically. x.comÂ
The Nasdaq 100's drop on OpenAI's scary news is an overreaction, and mega caps remain very healthy. AI bubble fears let market makers scare retail and buy behind closed doors. Once the index tests 736-738 as its 21-day moving average catches up, it should take off again toward 800, led by Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, Nvidia, AMD and TSMC. x.com x.comÂ
Favoring the Nasdaq 100 over small caps remains right because the digital economy has changed market structure, and AI is accelerating that shift. Fading QQQ against IWM has been the widowmaker trade in US equities since the iPhone launch. The Magnificent 7 are breaking out to new all-time highs as AI enters a consumer-agent stage, while small caps suffer from fears over rates and oil. Breadth warnings are everywhere, but the structure has changed: adapt or die. x.comÂ
Improving earnings and more attractive valuations favor AI infrastructure names Nvidia, Micron, Broadcom and TSMC. Goldman Sachs charts put memory stocks at about 4 times two-year forward earnings versus an 8 times median, and large fabless chip stocks at about 13 times versus 18 times. x.comÂ
The S&P 500's elevated P/E masks concentration in just a few stocks, making index exposure less appealing than selective stock picking for risk and reward. Its P/E is well above the ten-year median; digging into individual constituents looks more sensible than buying all 500. x.comÂ
Low-cost growth ETFs can build serious wealth through exposure to the best companies and strongest trends, without managing individual stocks. A clean setup is a core of VOO or VTI, a growth tilt through SCHG, VUG or QQQM, and an aggressive tech tilt through VGT. The ranking is SCHG, VUG, QQQM, SPYG, VGT, MGK, then IWF, which is solid but costlier. Many overlap, so owning all adds little diversification, and growth-heavy funds can be hit hard by rising rates, tech selloffs or rotation to value. … Show more
SoFi is the highest-conviction pick among eight businesses to own for 5+ years, as the market underestimates how big its financial ecosystem can become. Amazon has many ways to compound; Uber's core works, with autonomy as upside; ServiceNow has deep switching costs and a long AI runway. Zeta Global is riskier, with huge upside if growth quality holds. Netflix's margins, cash flow, pricing power, ads and scale are underrated; AMD offers data center exposure; AppLovin appeals at the right price. … Show more
Stocks with very high price-to-sales ratios, such as SpaceX, Snowflake, Palantir and Trump Media, are worth avoiding because higher price-to-sales has historically led to lower returns. Their annualized ratios are about 64.5, 20, 56.5 and 400. Growth investors are better served by Micron over SpaceX, Salesforce over Trump Media, Nvidia over Palantir and Alphabet over Snowflake. These companies' innovation is impressive, but valuation matters. x.com x.comÂ
