John Tinsman
Founder of AOT Invest, Portfolio Manager of AOTG/AOTS ETFs
Stocks with very high price-to-sales ratios, such as SpaceX, Snowflake, Palantir and Trump Media, are worth avoiding because higher price-to-sales has historically led to lower returns. Their annualized ratios are about 64.5, 20, 56.5 and 400. Growth investors are better served by Micron over SpaceX, Salesforce over Trump Media, Nvidia over Palantir and Alphabet over Snowflake. These companies' innovation is impressive, but valuation matters. x.com x.comÂ
Low forward earnings multiples across eleven stocks cannot persist indefinitely. Nvidia trades near 17.5x, its lowest in over a decade; Oracle near 15x, its lowest in six years. Uber is at 17x, Broadcom 19x, Vistra 15x, AppLovin 14.5x, TSMC 19x, Forgent Power Solutions 18x, Nokia 19.5x, American Express 17x and Western Digital 14x. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Combining estimated NTM revenue growth with trailing GAAP EBITDA margin makes Palo Alto Networks, Datadog, JFrog, Rubrik and Snowflake look overvalued against forward EV/sales. Zoom, Alphabet, Oracle, AppLovin, Microsoft, Fair Isaac, Adobe, Amazon and Teradata remain undervalued on this Rule of 40 comparison; Palantir, Cloudflare and CrowdStrike remain overvalued. x.comÂ
SpaceX's projected growth is challenging the earlier overvaluation case, though the reassessment is still in progress. A VJN.ai chart projects revenue 273.3% higher by Q4 2027, even as the company is valued at $2 trillion. x.com x.comÂ
Alphabet's businesses beyond search are why it will lead the real AI boom. Google Cloud, DeepMind and Waymo broaden its reach, and its $900 million SpaceX investment is now worth $85 billion. Fear emerging as the shares fall is an opportunity; a decline toward the buy zone is welcome, even as Q3 capex has taken a large hit out of free cash flow. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Most rivals cannot match these 12 stocks' moats. Micron is one of three HBM titans; Circle backs USDC; ASML alone makes EUV; Planet Labs has the largest Earth-imaging fleet. MongoDB is developers' choice; Affirm embeds at Amazon and Shopify; Eli Lilly leads GLP-1; SoFi spans loans, banking and investing. On gains via CloudTec; AST SpaceMobile builds phone satellites; Rigetti offers cloud quantum computing; Spotify, the largest music streamer, adds podcasts and audiobooks. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Costco, Apple, Intuitive Surgical, Alphabet and MSCI are amazing companies priced too high for their growth. Costco trades at 46x earnings on high-single-digit growth, Apple at 32x forward on low-double-digit EPS growth, and Intuitive Surgical at 38x forward on low-teens growth. Alphabet, the most attractive, is 33x operating income excluding investment gains. MSCI is 34x trailing on low-double-digit growth; S&P Global is better, cheaper and extremely high quality with similar growth. x.com … Show more
Seven stocks trade at forward P/Es far above the S&P 500's roughly 22x, leaving little room for disappointment. Tesla, at 186x, needs Robotaxi and Optimus to deliver. SpaceX, at about 108x, is valued near $2T on about $23B of sales. Arm, at 219x, already prices in heavy AI growth. Palantir, at 81x and 66x sales, can't afford slower growth. Intel, at 52x, prices in a foundry turnaround before profits. CrowdStrike, at 172x, and Palo Alto Networks, at 80x, are great businesses at huge premiums. … Show more
John Tinsman's screen for profitable large caps in high-growth sectors with low valuations makes Nvidia, Micron, Sandisk, Broadcom, Meta and Alphabet buys. Tinsman expects downside volatility in growth and tech while seeking to retain their upside potential. x.comÂ
Palantir, Intel, CrowdStrike, AST SpaceMobile and CoreWeave, presented as stocks Donald Trump owns, each have 10x potential and could create generational wealth this year. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX looks overvalued because markets assign it roughly the same forward P/E as Tesla, about 160, versus 20 for the S&P 500, 17 for Nvidia and 7 for Micron. That gap makes a mockery of efficient market theory. x.comÂ
