Bill Brooklyn
Capital Preservation, Asymmetric Risk/Reward, Holding Winners
Agentic AI demand should drive AMD's 2027 data-center growth well over 100% year on year. Server CPU revenue is forecast to double, with over 5 million Venice units shipping in 2027; Helios racks should ramp mostly in Q1 2027, with over 20,000 expected that year, while MI450/455X volume remains limited by end-2026. Projected 2027 sales are $103bn, with 2027 EPS revised up 15% and a new $720 target at 40x 2027 earnings. x.comÂ
AMD could see much more accelerator demand as OpenAI and Anthropic allegedly increase their orders by multiple gigawatts. Nvidia's only real edge over AMD may soon be its size and resources; Lisa Su is a master operator. x.comÂ
AMD is heading to $450 after earnings rather than higher, because it remains the perennial runner-up: always the bridesmaid, never the bride, first to Intel and now to NVIDIA. x.com x.comÂ
AI data-center spending should reach chips first, then racks, power and cooling, benefiting Nvidia, AMD, Vertiv, Bloom Energy, Credo, Marvell, Lumentum and Micron. BofA forecasts the global data-center market at about $1T in 2026, $2.1T in 2028 and nearly $3T by 2030, a 37% annual rise; roughly 80% of a new AI site's $57M per MW cost goes to servers, networking and storage. x.comÂ
On-the-ground data, including OCP rack vendors' reports of what they hear from customers, gives a clearer picture of AMD's CPU outlook. AMD's CPUs and GPUs are both in a growth cycle, leaving it on track to outgrow the market. The 14 million GPU figure through 2030 was always above the team's models, as it was for many others; the 2027 GPU sales estimate raised in the discussion was Morgan Stanley's, not theirs. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Intel and AMD face a real shift in competition as NVIDIA moves into CPUs faster and more directly than expected. On NVIDIA's earnings call, Jensen Huang said its new Vera CPU platform will contribute $20 billion of standalone revenue this year. The pressure on Intel and AMD is not just fund rotation but a genuine change in the competitive landscape. x.comÂ
AMD is building an AI infrastructure empire, with accelerating data center growth and large deals setting up a massive leg higher. Q2 2026 revenue rose 50% to $11.54B, data center revenue more than doubled to $6.7B, and Q3 guidance is near $13B. A partnership involving Anthropic points to up to 2 GW of MI450 GPUs in Helios racks, alongside Microsoft work, funded by up to $5B of investment-grade bonds. The uptrend is intact, and per @JPATrades someone sold $8.8M of $550 puts. x.comÂ
AMD should do well, replying to a post that says its EPYC CPUs are in massive demand and taking share from Intel. x.comÂ
AMD is priced as if it is winning the ecosystem war when it is fighting uphill, which makes it unattractive. Its chips now compete, but Nvidia built CUDA and the tooling everyone runs on, and switching means rebuilding that foundation, which almost nobody wants to do. AMD's realistic opportunity is newer data centers without that foundation, which is what has been happening. Yet nearly every sell-side firm rates it a buy at about 50x forward earnings. x.comÂ
AMD could become a $20 trillion company within five years in a bull case where AI keeps accelerating beyond comprehension. x.comÂ