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Korean Growth & Space Investor, RKLB/TSLA/PLTR/SPCX
Falling orbital launch costs should especially benefit companies that own both rockets and satellite networks, including SpaceX and Rocket Lab. Reusable rocket scale and higher launch frequency could cut cost per kilogram about 70% to $354 by 2031, according to the cited TD Cowen estimates. x.com
Satellite communications should gain value as established backbone networks mature. Starlink is already a substantial backbone and could be nearly complete in one to two years, though fully replacing terrestrial networks will take time. Optical communications could mature in two to three years and satellite communications may peak within five years; AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab and its Iridium exposure should gain value. x.com
Rocket Lab's rising Electron output and cost competitiveness could unlock a big European opportunity. COO Frank Klein says next year's production will exceed twice 2024's 15 rockets and argues buyers would not pay two or three times as much merely for a German-built rocket. He says Rocket Lab is discussing launch capacity with Germany and ESA, while Germany plans $41.1 billion in defense-space spending over five years. 2027 looks like a huge year for Rocket Lab. x.com
Rocket Lab still looks ridiculously expensive at 29 times forward sales against SpaceX at 22 times, even after a 65% fall. At 22 times, Rocket Lab would be roughly $38, and SpaceX would still be the pick. SpaceX also has better forward guidance; Rocket Lab's negative adjusted EBITDA makes sales multiples the valuation yardstick. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Skyroot Aerospace's cheap rockets, if successful long term, would be one of the biggest bull cases for satellite companies such as Viasat and AST SpaceMobile and bad for SpaceX and Amazon/Blue Origin. After launching Vikram-1, India's first private orbital-class rocket, Skyroot targets 1 ton to LEO next at $5K/kg versus SpaceX's $3K/kg; SpaceX took over 10 years to get from $16K to $5K, Skyroot about one. At scale it could reach $1K or less. Skyroot is valued around $1B versus SpaceX's $1T+. … Show more
Rocket Lab's Electron should gain major pricing power and margins as SpaceX winds down Falcon 9 rideshare for smaller satellites and companies. Electron is finely tuned, and Rocket Lab's largest-ever Electron deal adds 20 missions from New Zealand's LC-1 for 2028-2031, with launches booked five years out, per @itschrisray. Simultaneous launches from multiple pads worldwide should follow soon. x.com
A commercial-launch bottleneck is good news for Rocket Lab. Christine Ji reports that a SpaceX launch shortage is fueling a $100 billion wave of investment in space infrastructure and applications. x.com
Orbital data centers may take far longer than investors expect, if they happen at all. SpaceX sells compute on Earth and invests in power and cooling there, widening the hype-reality gap. SpaceX, Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile and Redwire could be dead money for years while the vision catches up. x.com
Investors rotating into cheaper stocks with more upside should ultimately benefit Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Both have already suffered major drawdowns. x.com
Rocket Lab's growing Space Systems business positions it to provide more than launches for the space economy. It generated $189.5M in Q2, 81% of revenue; if its pending Iridium acquisition closes, it would gain a global satellite communications network. At about $51, this is one of the most compelling long-term opportunities in the space sector over 3-5 years, provided it keeps executing. Neutron's launch has slipped to 2027, and execution risks remain. x.com x.com x.com
SpaceX's neocloud-driven valuation is vulnerable to short-notice compute contract exits. Losing contracts with 90-day out clauses could cut $500B from its valuation; at least one out clause appears to be coming in 2027 rather than 2029. Neocloud expectations drive 80% of its current valuation, despite earlier fundraising on Starlink, reusable rockets and Mars. What happened to Amazon in 2000-02 is about to happen to SpaceX by 2030-32. x.com x.com
Rocket Lab remains a long-term bet on the strength of the space sector and growing demand for launch platforms, even though it is expected to stay GAAP-unprofitable until around 2028. Goldman Sachs estimates SpaceX could reach $474 billion of revenue by 2030, including $322 billion from AI, showing how large the commercial space opportunity could become. Rocket Lab's largest commercial Electron contract, 20 Synspective launches for 2028-2031, lifted its backlog above 100 missions. x.com
