Sam Badawi
Stock Analyst, Creator of Origins of Alpha & Quarterly Conviction
Rocket Lab remains a long-term bet on the strength of the space sector and growing demand for launch platforms, even though it is expected to stay GAAP-unprofitable until around 2028. Goldman Sachs estimates SpaceX could reach $474 billion of revenue by 2030, including $322 billion from AI, showing how large the commercial space opportunity could become. Rocket Lab's largest commercial Electron contract, 20 Synspective launches for 2028-2031, lifted its backlog above 100 missions. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's launch business is gaining visibility with its largest-ever commercial Electron contract: 20 launches for Synspective from 2028 through 2031. That brings Synspective's total Electron missions to 47 and Rocket Lab's launch backlog to more than 100 missions. Elon Musk's talk of opening more SpaceX launches to outside payloads adds another angle on overall launch capacity. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's growing Space Systems business positions it to provide more than launches for the space economy. It generated $189.5M in Q2, 81% of revenue; if its pending Iridium acquisition closes, it would gain a global satellite communications network. At about $51, this is one of the most compelling long-term opportunities in the space sector over 3-5 years, provided it keeps executing. Neutron's launch has slipped to 2027, and execution risks remain. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Good SpaceX earnings could help Rocket Lab lead the new-space sector higher with a rally as violent as its capitulation. Rocket Lab is the sector leader outside SpaceX; its RSI is extremely oversold, the lower Bollinger band is overstretched and MACD's negative divergence is subsiding. Three upside gaps lie at $55.25-59.18, $64.22-65.71 and $73.11-74.76. The highest should fill before year-end, though the exact date is hard to predict. x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab still looks ridiculously expensive at 29 times forward sales against SpaceX at 22 times, even after a 65% fall. At 22 times, Rocket Lab would be roughly $38, and SpaceX would still be the pick. SpaceX also has better forward guidance; Rocket Lab's negative adjusted EBITDA makes sales multiples the valuation yardstick. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
A commercial-launch bottleneck is good news for Rocket Lab. Christine Ji reports that a SpaceX launch shortage is fueling a $100 billion wave of investment in space infrastructure and applications. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-phone satellite network makes it an extremely bullish long-term space-economy bet. Partnerships with more than 60 mobile operators representing over 3 billion potential subscribers and about $1.3 billion in contracted revenue backlog support the case. It targets initial, intermittent broadband coverage in five countries before end-2026; its market cap is roughly half Rocket Lab's, though both face significant execution risks. x.comÂ
No rocket or space company anywhere makes money, making the 'space is the future' investment pitch a bad bet. SpaceX is shown at -$4.9B; Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace and Planet Labs also have negative figures, ranging from -$131.20M to -$618.76M. x.comÂ
Space stocks could soar as Goldman Sachs sees the space economy reaching $1.8 trillion by 2035. Rocket Lab, with 70+ launches and new Space Force and NASA contracts, is quietly becoming the second rocket company after SpaceX. AST SpaceMobile's satellites connect directly to phones, with AT&T, Verizon and Vodafone as partners. Voyager is building NASA-backed Starlab to replace the ISS. BlackSky sells real-time imagery under long-term US government deals. SpaceX adds Starlink, Starship and xAI. … Show more
Rocket Lab is underestimated as a launch company when it is building a broader space infrastructure business, where satellites, components, spacecraft systems and national-security demand could matter as much as launches. It just signed its largest commercial Electron deal by mission count, 20 launches for Synspective from 2028 to 2031, per Wall St Engine, pushing its launch backlog above 100 missions. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's price bets on the most optimistic version of its results a decade out while it is still losing money, so the market is pricing a story rather than the company. Narrative now earns a premium and earnings do not, as with IonQ and AI-server-labeled Dell and HPE, and one quarterly miss means exit. This can last a long time in liquid, risk-on markets, as 1999 dot-coms and 2021 SPACs showed, so a drop is not imminent; buyers now are buying how long sentiment lasts. x.comÂ
The space trade is where AI was in 2022: a $613 billion economy in 2024 with a multiyear tailwind that most retail investors do not own. Rocket Lab is the only public US rocket company at scale; Iridium offers pole-to-pole satellite coverage and real cash flow; Karman supplies parts to every rocket launched; Planet Labs provides daily satellite imagery and just had its first profitable year; and AST SpaceMobile delivers direct satellite-to-smartphone broadband. x.comÂ
