Say No To Trading
Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management
Verra Mobility looks like another AI-disrupted company after Avis Budget ended its contract and the stock fell about 70% in a day. An early machine-learning player in tolling and red-light enforcement, it resembles UiPath: a good company that is not holding up against newer, superior AI-first competitors. A $500 million market cap against a $1 billion revenue guide looks cheap until you count its $1 billion of debt. x.com x.comÂ
Rental-car companies are bringing Verra Mobility's work in house. Verra Mobility is 'toast.' x.com x.comÂ
Avis Budget's market cap looks absurd: on rough private valuations it is now worth more than Enterprise, U-Haul, Hertz, Turo, Budget, Alamo, Thrifty and Ace combined, basically the entire rent-a-car industry. Shorting at the $490s is late after the $700-$800s, so only a small short, but the stock is probably going to $400. x.com x.comÂ
Constellation Software has no way to benefit from AI and little organic growth, so 21x GAAP EBIT looks fair, with perhaps a downside skew if churn rises across its portfolio in the next five years. The market's negative reaction is rational. Its small vertical software businesses were run financially rather than for product, many still on-prem, with no central AI strategy as software gets cheaper to build. Organic growth was 2% in constant currency; inorganic growth is fundamentally different. … Show more
