Waterworld Capital
Public Markets Commentary
Verra Mobility looks like another AI-disrupted company after Avis Budget ended its contract and the stock fell about 70% in a day. An early machine-learning player in tolling and red-light enforcement, it resembles UiPath: a good company that is not holding up against newer, superior AI-first competitors. A $500 million market cap against a $1 billion revenue guide looks cheap until you count its $1 billion of debt. x.com x.comÂ
Hertz will be out of business if robotaxis truly succeed, because no one will rent a car. Its new role cleaning, charging and fixing Uber's Lucid robotaxis, reported by TechCrunch, offers little cover: Hertz is unlikely to provide a differentiated service there since anyone can do it, and the company is pretty poorly managed. x.com x.comÂ
Avis Budget Group's shorts are not wrong, and the concentrated hedge-fund longs look hard to monetize. Avis hasn't had a year of positive free cash flow in a decade, carries about $3.5B of net debt excluding cars, and faces obsolescence if self-driving cars cut the need to own or rent, while better-capitalized Uber is chasing the intermediary role. SRS effectively controls the board, so needed share issuance is unlikely, and selling its stake would collapse the price. x.comÂ