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Special Situations & Volatility Investor, Wall Street Background
Moderna looks overvalued at about $80B after its melanoma success sparked a retail frenzy. Its upcoming Phase 2 lung cancer and Phase 3 kidney cancer readouts target cold tumors, with much lower odds than melanoma, though success in either would fuel the rally further. January calls cost about 67% of the share price annualized, the most expensive option seen on an already overvalued stock. The retail-driven trend could continue in the short term. x.com
Moderna's 177% jump, adding about $35 billion of value, looks driven by surprise and a short squeeze rather than fundamentals, so a pullback is likely once the squeeze ends. Stopping the Phase 3 melanoma trial three years early for efficacy is worth perhaps $2-3 billion in NPV, as results mirrored Phase 2. Short interest was about 14% of float, with brokers neutral or Sell. These levels are not a buy and could be a long-term short, though the stock can go anywhere short term. x.com
Moderna's data catalyst is done, and it won't get an early stop in RCC. That makes it a good short here, with the story over until at least next summer. x.com
Moderna is a stock to bet against. x.com
Moderna's cancer-cure mystery and optimism are the conditions that drive big stock moves. Its theme is now hot to trade, alongside related stocks. CoreWeave's 2025 AI data-center IPO rode similar uncertainty about AI revenue while AI was hot; it now faces AI-spending worries. x.com
Moderna generates one-tenth of Bristol Myers Squibb's revenue, making their nearly equal valuations hard to justify. x.com
Moderna's cash burn and persistent operating losses make profitable commercialization the central constraint despite promising melanoma results. Its revenue remains too small and uneven to cover development costs, while rising diluted shares weaken financial resilience. x.com
Moderna's oncology franchise has been repriced by the Merck-partnered INTerpath-001 melanoma vaccine trial, a watershed moment. Argus upgraded the stock to Buy with a $180 target, noting shares remain more than 70% below their old highs, and Moderna closed an upsized $2.6 billion convertible note to fund oncology growth. The stock is consolidating in a tight pennant after its biggest gap up in years; a move above $156.13 targets $161.37, then $176.66. x.com
Moderna has almost 40% downside to its average analyst price target of $119.56, which makes the sudden rush to buy it hard to explain. x.com
Moderna remains unattractive despite forced Nasdaq-100 index buying: quarterly revenue is $145M against a $782M loss, while shares trade around $200. Citi rates it Sell with an $80 target. x.com
Moderna is extremely attractive because curing cancer is a big story, but more consolidation is likely first. The weekly chart shows a wide gap between price and the upper Bollinger Band, so volatility may need another week or two to ebb before the stock possibly starts moving higher. x.com
Moderna looks expensive even under a bullish scenario. A base model values Covid, flu and RSV at $10B, oncology at $15B and the platform at $5B: a $30B market cap, or $75 a share versus $135, about 45% downside. Even $10B of oncology sales by 2035, one of the best pharma launches ever, at 8x sales and a 10% discount rate gives about $120. The CMV trial failed, norovirus is at risk, rivals are developing mRNA flu vaccines, and BofA's raised $170 target looks unjustified. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
