Moderna generates one-tenth of Bristol Myers Squibb's revenue, making their nearly equal valuations hard to justify. x.com 

Moderna's vaccine looks weak even in melanoma, the easiest indication for cancer vaccines, casting doubt on harder indications. The reportedly leaked data showed only a 12% difference. Even if approved, it will never get used or sold. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Moderna could re-rate toward $210 by the end of 2027 because the market should move ahead of its free cash flow inflection. That assumes free cash flow reaches breakeven by mid-2028, driven by successful commercialization of its personalized mRNA cancer therapy. x.com 

Moderna remains unattractive despite forced Nasdaq-100 index buying: quarterly revenue is $145M against a $782M loss, while shares trade around $200. Citi rates it Sell with an $80 target. x.com 

Moderna's data catalyst is done, and it won't get an early stop in RCC. That makes it a good short here, with the story over until at least next summer. x.com 

Moderna is worth roughly $190-215 a share on a probability-weighted outcome tree, above the $157 price after its melanoma vaccine readout. Failure implies $75-85, melanoma-only $125-160, positive Phase 3 lung data $250-400, and broad cancer vaccination far more. The market is more skeptical on lung, and that readout decides the trade. With about 50M shares short, a squeeze could hit $400 before a return to a $120-190 range. Most outcomes sit at or below the price, so defined risk is warranted. … Show more

Moderna's customer options positioning was not bullish, and the stock subsequently flushed 20%. WizOfOps described the top 10 trades as only modestly bearish, with no solid consensus among the customers dominating the flow. x.com 

Moderna looks overvalued at about $80B after its melanoma success sparked a retail frenzy. Its upcoming Phase 2 lung cancer and Phase 3 kidney cancer readouts target cold tumors, with much lower odds than melanoma, though success in either would fuel the rally further. January calls cost about 67% of the share price annualized, the most expensive option seen on an already overvalued stock. The retail-driven trend could continue in the short term. x.com 

Moderna's cancer-cure mystery and optimism are the conditions that drive big stock moves. Its theme is now hot to trade, alongside related stocks. CoreWeave's 2025 AI data-center IPO rode similar uncertainty about AI revenue while AI was hot; it now faces AI-spending worries. x.com 

Moderna is a stock to bet against. x.com