Biotech2k
Biotech Investor, AI-Driven Drug Discovery
BioNTech's cancer-vaccine failure points to the same outcome for Moderna because their approaches use the same technology. Moderna will fail in every indication outside melanoma: it has no unique fix for the costs, antigen diversity or manufacturing time that have defeated earlier efforts, and its expensive therapy only works after tumor removal and cure. Its COVID vaccine success does not solve those cancer-vaccine problems. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Moderna's cash burn and persistent operating losses make profitable commercialization the central constraint despite promising melanoma results. Its revenue remains too small and uneven to cover development costs, while rising diluted shares weaken financial resilience. x.comÂ
Moderna generates one-tenth of Bristol Myers Squibb's revenue, making their nearly equal valuations hard to justify. x.comÂ
Moderna's positive Phase 3 trials for a cancer vaccine give huge validation that it may actually work and go on to FDA approval. The result was a total surprise to markets, making it an episodic pivot. x.comÂ
Moderna's data catalyst is done, and it won't get an early stop in RCC. That makes it a good short here, with the story over until at least next summer. x.comÂ
Moderna looks overvalued at about $80B after its melanoma success sparked a retail frenzy. Its upcoming Phase 2 lung cancer and Phase 3 kidney cancer readouts target cold tumors, with much lower odds than melanoma, though success in either would fuel the rally further. January calls cost about 67% of the share price annualized, the most expensive option seen on an already overvalued stock. The retail-driven trend could continue in the short term. x.comÂ
Moderna's cancer-cure mystery and optimism are the conditions that drive big stock moves. Its theme is now hot to trade, alongside related stocks. CoreWeave's 2025 AI data-center IPO rode similar uncertainty about AI revenue while AI was hot; it now faces AI-spending worries. x.comÂ
Moderna remains unattractive despite forced Nasdaq-100 index buying: quarterly revenue is $145M against a $782M loss, while shares trade around $200. Citi rates it Sell with an $80 target. x.comÂ
Moderna looks expensive even under a bullish scenario. A base model values Covid, flu and RSV at $10B, oncology at $15B and the platform at $5B: a $30B market cap, or $75 a share versus $135, about 45% downside. Even $10B of oncology sales by 2035, one of the best pharma launches ever, at 8x sales and a 10% discount rate gives about $120. The CMV trial failed, norovirus is at risk, rivals are developing mRNA flu vaccines, and BofA's raised $170 target looks unjustified. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Moderna should be a $500 stock on the strength of its personalized mRNA cancer therapy, now in a Phase 3 trial for the first time. As described in a post shared on the news, the therapy gives the immune system the tumor's genetic fingerprint so T-cells can be trained to find the cancer, while Keytruda removes the brakes cancer places on those T-cells. x.comÂ
Moderna is not a long here because its valuation is now super stretched after a huge one-day move. Per @A_May_MD, Moderna added $45B in market cap on a dataless phase 3 press release in adjuvant combination melanoma, with a drug it owns only half of. Non-experts expecting AI to cure cancer and develop drugs at insane speed are out of their league. The news is great, but risk needs managing, and this may work only as a trade. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ