Ted Zhang
Portfolio Manager of Turbotection at Revere Asset Management
Moderna's momentum turned into an uptrend a couple of months ago on a full-year guidance raise, and some regulatory and legal overhangs have recently lifted. An Australian man's mRNA cancer vaccine for his dog, which cut tumor size by 70%, could also be a catalyst for the mRNA theme that Moderna's vaccine and cancer research targets. x.com
Moderna's next push is cancer vaccines after its COVID-19 run. The stock is about to enter a re-accumulation stage, a chance to buy heavily before another huge move, and a single article could send it higher. x.com
Moderna's cancer-cure mystery and optimism are the conditions that drive big stock moves. Its theme is now hot to trade, alongside related stocks. CoreWeave's 2025 AI data-center IPO rode similar uncertainty about AI revenue while AI was hot; it now faces AI-spending worries. x.com
Moderna's vaccine looks weak even in melanoma, the easiest indication for cancer vaccines, casting doubt on harder indications. The reportedly leaked data showed only a 12% difference. Even if approved, it will never get used or sold. x.com x.com x.com
Moderna is extremely attractive because curing cancer is a big story, but more consolidation is likely first. The weekly chart shows a wide gap between price and the upper Bollinger Band, so volatility may need another week or two to ebb before the stock possibly starts moving higher. x.com
Moderna should be a $500 stock on the strength of its personalized mRNA cancer therapy, now in a Phase 3 trial for the first time. As described in a post shared on the news, the therapy gives the immune system the tumor's genetic fingerprint so T-cells can be trained to find the cancer, while Keytruda removes the brakes cancer places on those T-cells. x.com
Moderna's data catalyst is done, and it won't get an early stop in RCC. That makes it a good short here, with the story over until at least next summer. x.com
Moderna looks like a logical play on plague-outbreak concerns, though this is outside areas of expertise. A Russian lab worker's sudden death has raised fears of a plague crisis, per Zero Hedge, with the Trump team monitoring the outbreak, and the stock is acting well. x.com
Moderna's oncology franchise has been repriced by the Merck-partnered INTerpath-001 melanoma vaccine trial, a watershed moment. Argus upgraded the stock to Buy with a $180 target, noting shares remain more than 70% below their old highs, and Moderna closed an upsized $2.6 billion convertible note to fund oncology growth. The stock is consolidating in a tight pennant after its biggest gap up in years; a move above $156.13 targets $161.37, then $176.66. x.com
Moderna looks overvalued at about $80B after its melanoma success sparked a retail frenzy. Its upcoming Phase 2 lung cancer and Phase 3 kidney cancer readouts target cold tumors, with much lower odds than melanoma, though success in either would fuel the rally further. January calls cost about 67% of the share price annualized, the most expensive option seen on an already overvalued stock. The retail-driven trend could continue in the short term. x.com
Genomics is quietly coming back to life. Moderna's personalized cancer vaccine with Merck succeeded in a Phase 3 melanoma trial, sending Moderna up almost 100% in a day. The ecosystem spans sequencing (Illumina, PacBio, Thermo Fisher, Agilent), gene editing (CRISPR, Intellia, Beam, Prime), gene therapy (uniQure), tools (Twist, Danaher, Qiagen, Bio-Techne, 10x), diagnostics (Natera, Guardant) and therapeutics (Lilly, Regeneron, Vertex, Moderna, BioNTech, BioMarin, Roche). x.com