Michael Wiggins De Oliveira
Deep Value Returns, Equity Investing without Options or Leverage
Moderna's oncology franchise has been repriced by the Merck-partnered INTerpath-001 melanoma vaccine trial, a watershed moment. Argus upgraded the stock to Buy with a $180 target, noting shares remain more than 70% below their old highs, and Moderna closed an upsized $2.6 billion convertible note to fund oncology growth. The stock is consolidating in a tight pennant after its biggest gap up in years; a move above $156.13 targets $161.37, then $176.66. x.comÂ
Moderna's cancer-cure mystery and optimism are the conditions that drive big stock moves. Its theme is now hot to trade, alongside related stocks. CoreWeave's 2025 AI data-center IPO rode similar uncertainty about AI revenue while AI was hot; it now faces AI-spending worries. x.comÂ
Moderna's approaching October 24 data release at a Madrid conference makes some pre-event profit-taking likely. After the release, the stock could be $400, $200 or $40; the outcome is unknown. x.comÂ
Moderna could rise further with strong call flow showing, but it is getting close to a top expected in late October or early November; take profits on the way up. x.comÂ
Moderna should be a $500 stock on the strength of its personalized mRNA cancer therapy, now in a Phase 3 trial for the first time. As described in a post shared on the news, the therapy gives the immune system the tumor's genetic fingerprint so T-cells can be trained to find the cancer, while Keytruda removes the brakes cancer places on those T-cells. x.comÂ
Moderna's cash burn and persistent operating losses make profitable commercialization the central constraint despite promising melanoma results. Its revenue remains too small and uneven to cover development costs, while rising diluted shares weaken financial resilience. x.comÂ
Moderna is worth roughly $190-215 a share on a probability-weighted outcome tree, above the $157 price after its melanoma vaccine readout. Failure implies $75-85, melanoma-only $125-160, positive Phase 3 lung data $250-400, and broad cancer vaccination far more. The market is more skeptical on lung, and that readout decides the trade. With about 50M shares short, a squeeze could hit $400 before a return to a $120-190 range. Most outcomes sit at or below the price, so defined risk is warranted. … Show more
Moderna could get explosive above $200 as anyone who shorted last week's valuation downgrade has to cover. The shakeout on that downgrade was a killer opportunity, and the stock is now back over $200. x.comÂ
Moderna's data catalyst is done, and it won't get an early stop in RCC. That makes it a good short here, with the story over until at least next summer. x.comÂ
Moderna's next push is cancer vaccines after its COVID-19 run. The stock is about to enter a re-accumulation stage, a chance to buy heavily before another huge move, and a single article could send it higher. x.comÂ