Amazon's unusual long-term AWS guidance looks desperate and leaves its stock looking dead. @P_Remarks says Amazon normally avoids long-term guidance and speculates that its projection of over 40% AWS revenue growth in both 2027 and 2028 was a Hail Mary to offset a quarter weak relative to expectations. x.com 

Amazon's negative free cash flow and far-off AWS guidance add to its investment risk. Free cash flow is -$42 billion. True_yes_man describes Jassy extrapolating fourth-quarter AWS revenue at 40% growth for five years. That guide cannot be taken seriously; it resembles the Tesla and Nvidia playbook of projecting years ahead to support the market into the midterms, then recalibrating later. x.com  x.com 

Amazon looks like a $289 stock at $249, as AWS growth reaccelerates and retail margins improve. Real wealth is built by buying in weeks like this one and holding, not by buying all-time highs. x.com 

Amazon's weak retail growth has shaken the earlier buy case. Online-store sales rose just 2% year over year, and the retail numbers look so poor that it is no longer clear at what price the shares are a buy. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Alphabet's core Search growth is slowing while AI spending surges, making the selloff look deserved despite fast Cloud growth. Search growth fell from 19% to 17% to 12% over three quarters; Search now represents just under half of revenue. The stock could fall to $250, though Amazon is the preferred buy. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Amazon's faster AWS growth and broader profit support its investment case, but returns on infrastructure spending remain uncertain. AWS supplied about 60% of the $10.7B rise in operating income and North American retail about 37%. Trailing net capex of $210.7B exceeded $168.3B of operating cash flow. Much of the spend is on chips and servers with lives well under a decade; the test is how quickly capacity becomes AWS revenue. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Amazon's hundreds of billions in AWS GPU spending are generating billions in additional sales without the operating-margin payoff expected from that investment, worsening its credit risk. The attached AWS chart shows quarterly revenue rising from $23.1 billion in Q3 2023 to $42.2 billion in Q2 2026, alongside operating income rising from $7 billion to $16.6 billion; the concern is the return on the GPU spending. x.com 

Amazon's AWS AI rents look limited because NVIDIA backs neoclouds and Anthropic can set AWS's cut of Bedrock Claude tokens. Those tokens run on AWS-funded Trainium. Enterprise AI earns ~2 points above capital cost in the 2035 base case; shared hyperscaler advantages and new rivals limit upside, though 1-5 points is plausible. Retail ads pose a fat-tail risk despite a base case that Amazon figures them out. Market skepticism about AWS capex has toned down the bearish view. x.com 

Amazon looks cheap against its growth and cash-generating businesses. At about 3.5 times trailing revenue and a roughly 20 trailing P/E, it has $776B in sales, AWS growing 37% year over year, plus advertising and marketplace cash engines. x.com 

Amazon looks set to rally into its Q1 report and then fall again, because heavy non-AWS investment weighs on operating income and the stock works in harvest years, not investment years. A clean operating income guide needs a huge AWS beat to flow through, and people already put out very high AWS numbers. Layoffs help, but not enough against data-center and fulfillment efficiency comps. It is a crowded long that has crushed Microsoft on relative performance, with market caps approaching parity. … Show more