Say No To Trading
Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management
Nasdaq is one of the more interesting exchanges to own because, as long as markets are tech driven, companies list there for the tag-along benefits. Roughly the 10 largest US-listed companies by market cap are now on Nasdaq, with Berkshire's spot varying by day. ICE's NYSE may regain the lead someday. x.com
The coming IPO wave led by SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic will create wealth that must flow through exchanges, brokers, wealth and alternative managers and luxury brands, still valued below peaks. Rebalancing, margin loans and estate plans run on the same rails that handled the offerings. SpaceX alone brought about $500M in underwriting fees to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, and Nasdaq's fast-entry rule forces index buying within 15 days. In the 1990s this plumbing scaled with the money. x.com … Show more
The Nasdaq-100's index construction is exceptional because it captures each market leader in turn: it rode the runs in Tesla, the FANG stocks, software, Nvidia and memory, and kept working when each group stalled by handing off to the next leader. That delivers an excellent Sharpe ratio, enough that simply holding it may be the best approach. x.com
The Nasdaq-100 is showing distribution, with too little participation under a near-record price; this is not a crash call. A rounding top has formed since April, and QQQ has stalled under the same dome three times since May. The McClellan Oscillator is rolling over a third time; a similar rollover in July preceded the summer's sharpest drop. New 52-week highs are only 1–4% of S&P members and just 54% of stocks sit above their 50-day average. Support is 702. x.com x.com
Nasdaq-100 inclusion forces durable ownership of Astera Labs, CoreWeave, Nebius, Teradyne and Rocket Lab. About $1.4 trillion tracks the index, with QQQ near $500 billion, so every fund must hold them at index weight, and benchmarked managers can no longer ignore them. The one-day inclusion pop has largely faded and these names already jumped on the June 12 announcement; the lasting gain is benchmark gravity compounding for years as the index redefines itself around AI build-out. x.com
Nasdaq-100 tech leaders such as Meta, Alphabet, Nvidia and Amazon trade at an unjustified discount, their lowest premium to the S&P 500 in seven years. The Magnificent Seven's premium has fallen from 1.8x to 1.2x, even though they grow faster than average and deliver significantly higher profitability. x.com
There is a reasonable chance, about 35%, of a 10-15% drawdown in the Nasdaq and Magnificent 7 before year-end, alongside a return of value investing. Jim Chanos' chart reinforces the setup for what triggers a drawdown in tech-dense passive indexes, which buy indiscriminately by market cap when dollars come in and sell the same way when they leave. x.com x.com
Nasdaq-100 trackers are about to be forced buyers of SpaceX at the worst price, funded by selling the index's best businesses. Around July 6, about 15 trading days after its IPO, SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 under rewritten rules that scrapped the float requirement. Cuts are proportional to weight, so Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia get trimmed hardest to buy a company losing $4 billion a quarter, near 100 times sales after a run from $135 toward $200. The S&P 500 kept its profitability rule. x.com … Show more
Securities exchange operators such as Cboe, CME, ICE and MIAX may be a better vehicle than country indexes. Horizon Kinetics research shows national securities exchanges have significantly outperformed their regional stock indexes over 20-year periods, though that may not hold in the future. x.com
The Nasdaq 100 is set up for a tech rally into and through NVIDIA's earnings because positioning and sentiment are extremely negative while volatility is low. NVIDIA has fallen seven straight days into earnings for the first time since 2022 and the Nasdaq is down six of seven, so at $210 versus $240 NVIDIA's bar is much lower. That mix makes cheap calls an asymmetric lottery ticket, though never a big position. There is no edge on the earnings result itself. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
US institutions accumulating Sivers Semiconductors into a tiny float, with a Nasdaq dual-listing vote on the horizon, is a clear signal. Per @aleabitoreddit, BlackRock has entered as a passive owner after an index listing and Fidelity Research has started direct positions, following JPMorgan's build from small positions to about 5.25% of the company, which @aleabitoreddit reads as US institutions validating Sivers's position in photonics. x.com
