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Equity & Macro Commentary, Technology Investing
The Nasdaq-100's index construction is exceptional because it captures each market leader in turn: it rode the runs in Tesla, the FANG stocks, software, Nvidia and memory, and kept working when each group stalled by handing off to the next leader. That delivers an excellent Sharpe ratio, enough that simply holding it may be the best approach. x.comÂ
The Nasdaq 100's drop on OpenAI's scary news is an overreaction, and mega caps remain very healthy. AI bubble fears let market makers scare retail and buy behind closed doors. Once the index tests 736-738 as its 21-day moving average catches up, it should take off again toward 800, led by Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, Nvidia, AMD and TSMC. x.com x.comÂ
Favoring the Nasdaq 100 over small caps remains right because the digital economy has changed market structure, and AI is accelerating that shift. Fading QQQ against IWM has been the widowmaker trade in US equities since the iPhone launch. The Magnificent 7 are breaking out to new all-time highs as AI enters a consumer-agent stage, while small caps suffer from fears over rates and oil. Breadth warnings are everywhere, but the structure has changed: adapt or die. x.comÂ
The Nasdaq 100 faces short-term downside because a failed push to a new high leaves crowded bullish sentiment vulnerable to a break below. Despite record institutional accumulation and a long-term bullish position, five months of chop, a failed ATH and an attempted loss of the bullish trend favor hedging rather than adding leverage. x.com x.comÂ
The Nasdaq-100 looks like a good buy here. x.comÂ
The Nasdaq 100 is suited to be a core holding thanks to having the largest size and liquidity among top tech ETFs, even though its roughly 19-22% annualized 10-year return trails the leaders. Semiconductor ETFs topped the decade at around 35-38% a year. x.comÂ
Nasdaq-100 trackers are about to be forced buyers of SpaceX at the worst price, funded by selling the index's best businesses. Around July 6, about 15 trading days after its IPO, SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 under rewritten rules that scrapped the float requirement. Cuts are proportional to weight, so Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia get trimmed hardest to buy a company losing $4 billion a quarter, near 100 times sales after a run from $135 toward $200. The S&P 500 kept its profitability rule. x.com … Show more
The Nasdaq 100 looks set for a persistent uptrend after hitting a new record, which favors 3x leveraged exposure through TQQQ. After three choppy months, funds are refocusing on what matters while positioning and sentiment remain lopsided and weak, making a rise likelier than more chop and possibly another major bull run. Leveraged ETFs compound in steady uptrends but lose to friction in chop, as TQQQ's 136% gain against QQQ's 35% in April-May showed. Gulf tensions still need to end. x.com x.comÂ
John Tinsman's screen for profitable large caps in high-growth sectors with low valuations makes Nvidia, Micron, Sandisk, Broadcom, Meta and Alphabet buys. Tinsman expects downside volatility in growth and tech while seeking to retain their upside potential. x.comÂ
The Nasdaq 100's problem is its multiple, not hyperscaler spending. Celestica raised guidance on a red day for the index; per @TheValueist, it lifted 2026 revenue guidance from $17.0B to $19.0B and adjusted EPS guidance from $8.75 to $10.15, saying demand is now paced by supply rather than end-market weakness. x.comÂ
SpaceX likely surpasses NVIDIA's market cap on passive flows alone as it is worked into the Nasdaq 100. That can be true even while being intellectually honest that the valuation is completely absurd. x.comÂ
