The Nasdaq's earnings growth makes its valuation look ridiculously cheap for its quality and diversification. At 23x forward earnings, EPS grew 48% over the past year and net margins are 20%; the attached chart puts ROE at 35%. Extending 18% five-year EPS growth three years implies 14x earnings then with little debt and 30% ROIC; slower growth would still imply about 15x. Beating it requires extreme concentration, a mandate most active managers cannot get from LPs. Index figures per Claude. … Show more

The Nasdaq 100 looks less like a bubble because it has become significantly cheaper over the last year. Per Mike Zaccardi, its P/E is near 23x versus almost 30x a year ago. x.com 

Forward risks matter more than good earnings for the Nasdaq now. The index looks to be topping and has a good shot at 28,000 before a rally after the midterms; tomorrow's PCE and GDP releases are unlikely to help, and this week's lows could break. x.com  x.com 

Rising S&P earnings revisions and a Nasdaq valuation far below the 2000 bubble level argue against a bull trap in US large caps. Nasdaq trades at 18x forward earnings versus over 80x in 2000. Positive breadth divergences, record short ETF exposure and put volume, and semiconductors waking up add to the case. In all 19 post-midterm instances cited, markets were very green over the following 12 months. x.com  x.com 

The AI supercycle is backed by real profit growth, not a bubble. Nasdaq-100 earnings-per-share growth just crossed 50%, faster than the post-GFC rebound and every expansion cycle of the last two decades, with revenue growth rising alongside it. Bubbles are built on multiple expansion and nonexistent earnings; this is an acceleration in real cash flow. x.com 

The Nasdaq 100 faces short-term downside because a failed push to a new high leaves crowded bullish sentiment vulnerable to a break below. Despite record institutional accumulation and a long-term bullish position, five months of chop, a failed ATH and an attempted loss of the bullish trend favor hedging rather than adding leverage. x.com  x.com 

The S&P 500's elevated P/E masks concentration in just a few stocks, making index exposure less appealing than selective stock picking for risk and reward. Its P/E is well above the ten-year median; digging into individual constituents looks more sensible than buying all 500. x.com 

Low forward earnings multiples across eleven stocks cannot persist indefinitely. Nvidia trades near 17.5x, its lowest in over a decade; Oracle near 15x, its lowest in six years. Uber is at 17x, Broadcom 19x, Vistra 15x, AppLovin 14.5x, TSMC 19x, Forgent Power Solutions 18x, Nokia 19.5x, American Express 17x and Western Digital 14x. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

The Nasdaq 100 has a good chance of topping before year-end this year, breaking a streak that has held every year since 2022, because semiconductors are at a major top. Even after two 10% corrections in the index since June, everyone still wants to buy tech. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Improving breadth and GPUs massively outrunning depreciation costs put US-equity risk/reward heavily in bulls' favour. Some 59% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day average; the Nasdaq 100 is positive over five trading days, and small caps bounced off their 200-day average. Buy gradually, as the selloff may not be completely over. x.com