AllllSevens
Stock-Market Research, Institutional Trading & Market Inefficiencies
The Nasdaq 100 faces short-term downside because a failed push to a new high leaves crowded bullish sentiment vulnerable to a break below. Despite record institutional accumulation and a long-term bullish position, five months of chop, a failed ATH and an attempted loss of the bullish trend favor hedging rather than adding leverage. x.com x.com
Nasdaq 100 stocks look early in a secular bull market because institutions keep buying record size on every dip. QQQ saw its largest six-month buy volume ever in the first half, about $4.6T, while July's decline drew no institutional participation. Last year's high-volume breakout above 2021-2024 all-time-high resistance is being retested and held, with price stair-stepping and no blow-off top. Short-term direction is unclear, but the next bull run should be extreme. x.com
Disappointing Amazon earnings make a Nasdaq 100 decline to the bottom of its range near 700 look likely tomorrow. It may be forming a range like the one that preceded the decline into the March low, but a sideways phase lasting as long as that one looks unlikely. x.com x.com
Accumulating macro headwinds have sharply raised Nasdaq 100 risk, so protect the portfolio. The bull market looks near its end rather than its beginning, although the timing of the top remains uncertain. x.com
A breadth thrust and fresh buying point to at least a multi-week rise in US indices, most probably a big rally for a few months after the midterms. LS Breadth is flipping bullish as the bear count falls; more stocks are starting uptrends and first consolidations. The Nasdaq 100 is bouncing with strong breadth, and the S&P 500 looks ready to leave a massive base. The Nasdaq 100 could sell off at declining averages but should rise if broad selling does not return. x.com
Forward risks matter more than good earnings for the Nasdaq now. The index looks to be topping and has a good shot at 28,000 before a rally after the midterms; tomorrow's PCE and GDP releases are unlikely to help, and this week's lows could break. x.com x.com
Nasdaq-100 downside could accelerate if QQQ falls below $712: dealer positioning at $700 and $690 would fuel the move unless the index reclaims its moving averages and breaks upward. July and September FOMC lows remain untouched, something that has not persisted across two consecutive meetings; taking out at least one in the next week would not be surprising. x.com
Rising S&P earnings revisions and a Nasdaq valuation far below the 2000 bubble level argue against a bull trap in US large caps. Nasdaq trades at 18x forward earnings versus over 80x in 2000. Positive breadth divergences, record short ETF exposure and put volume, and semiconductors waking up add to the case. In all 19 post-midterm instances cited, markets were very green over the following 12 months. x.com x.com
The Nasdaq-100 is showing distribution, with too little participation under a near-record price; this is not a crash call. A rounding top has formed since April, and QQQ has stalled under the same dome three times since May. The McClellan Oscillator is rolling over a third time; a similar rollover in July preceded the summer's sharpest drop. New 52-week highs are only 1–4% of S&P members and just 54% of stocks sit above their 50-day average. Support is 702. x.com x.com
The Nasdaq 100 has a good chance of topping before year-end this year, breaking a streak that has held every year since 2022, because semiconductors are at a major top. Even after two 10% corrections in the index since June, everyone still wants to buy tech. x.com x.com x.com
The Nasdaq is unlikely to crash with so many investors already hedged. x.com
The Nasdaq 100 may face a quick pullback later this week given the froth in the market. A shakeout seems needed to clear out some hubris. x.com
