Rising S&P earnings revisions and a Nasdaq valuation far below the 2000 bubble level argue against a bull trap in US large caps. Nasdaq trades at 18x forward earnings versus over 80x in 2000. Positive breadth divergences, record short ETF exposure and put volume, and semiconductors waking up add to the case. In all 19 post-midterm instances cited, markets were very green over the following 12 months. x.com  x.com 

The Nasdaq has likely bottomed or is very close, with the bull market intact on fundamentals. Its RSI hit 30, a sign of seller exhaustion, and most AI infrastructure stocks near that level are buys. JPMorgan says Korea's leverage unwind is complete, and Wednesday's largest retail selloff since the March 2020 crash marked capitulation. Earnings keep crushing, with capex rising and insatiable compute demand per Mark Zuckerberg and Microsoft. Summer chop for a few weeks would not be surprising. … Show more

The Nasdaq 100 faces short-term downside because a failed push to a new high leaves crowded bullish sentiment vulnerable to a break below. Despite record institutional accumulation and a long-term bullish position, five months of chop, a failed ATH and an attempted loss of the bullish trend favor hedging rather than adding leverage. x.com  x.com 

Bubbles rarely end when expected and tend to run much further, so the Nasdaq looks to be in a shakeout rather than at the end of its advance. Nasdaq at 40,000 or 50,000 is not out of the question in a melt-up; those who buy this dip will be greatly rewarded if positioned correctly. x.com  x.com 

The Nasdaq's 10%-plus pullback from June to July was healthy, wiping out leverage and crushing artificially boosted names, so the market is ready for its next leg up. A market that keeps ripping higher without pullbacks becomes very unhealthy. x.com 

Forward risks matter more than good earnings for the Nasdaq now. The index looks to be topping and has a good shot at 28,000 before a rally after the midterms; tomorrow's PCE and GDP releases are unlikely to help, and this week's lows could break. x.com  x.com 

The Nasdaq's momentum selloff looks like a crowded AI trade unwinding into cyclicals, a washout rather than a top. Goldman's high-beta momentum index fell 24% in early July, its worst since April 2009, per @stocktalkweekly, yet the index held as money rotated rather than left, with AI names de-rating even on TSMC's beat. The real risk is financing: AI capex has outrun cash flow and runs on cheap money, debt and vendor paper, so tighter credit could stall the buildout even with strong demand. … Show more

Extreme fear and bearish sentiment support a rally in US stocks after the correction. BozoHero reports that CNN's fear-and-greed index hit extreme fear four times in 52 weeks without reaching extreme greed. Per simple_setups, VIX spiked over 35% in a day and AAII bears exceeded 40% for most of the past six weeks. The Nasdaq Composite is likely to fill its 26,200 gap and could reach 26,000, a 6% correction, before moving higher. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Accumulating macro headwinds have sharply raised Nasdaq 100 risk, so protect the portfolio. The bull market looks near its end rather than its beginning, although the timing of the top remains uncertain. x.com 

Hyperscaler credit stress and weak financials-versus-staples leadership warn of downside risk in the S&P 500 consolidation. Spreads have broken July wides, though an upside breakout is probable if financials stabilize. So far, tech weakness has lowered yields as Fed hikes are priced out, letting defensives rally and the S&P chop. If the Fed signals Nasdaq weakness won't stop tightening without better data, the tech-yield link could break in an uncomfortable, 2018-like direction. x.com  x.com  … Show more